It seems like the estimates for VBR encoding are falling short. I once burnt a CD with tons of FLAC to be converted to MP3. MC immediately removed a whole pile of the songs and when it was finished burning the CD, it had burnt under 500 MB. Now my question is if there would be a way to calculate a more accurate estimate based on the FLAC bit rate. Is there any correlation between a VBR MP3's size and the relative size of a FLAC file?
For example, take 3 songs. In FLAC, 1=10 MB, 2=20MB, 3=30MB. If all these songs are the same length (duration), then the bit rate should be much greater on 2 and 3. So, wouldn't the MP3 size be larger for the second and third? Considering there is probably some similarities, could this concept help get better estimates?