INTERACT FORUM
More => Music, Movies, Politics, and Other Cheap Thrills => Topic started by: JimH on June 29, 2024, 03:27:41 am
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Biden. Trump.
I remember Nixon vs. Humphrey in 1968, during the war in Viet Nam. No good choice. Nixon won. Gloomy time.
2024 has been equally uninspiring. I've supported Biden, financially and otherwise, but without a lot of enthusiasm. He's done a good job as President, but the debate on Thursday was the sad end of his career, in my opinion.
Biden will be 82 in November. I'll be 80 a month later. I can't imagine keeping the schedule he has.
If he doesn't make a decision now, we are extremely likely to have Trump in office again. Unbelievable, but likely. The Federal government, already a mess, will descend into chaos.
I see two possibilities.
1. Biden releases his delegates, and asks for an open convention. We go back to the time when conventions meant something and weren't just a pageant. Anyone can be nominated, and rounds of voting continue until someone achieves a majority of delegates. If the delegates want Biden, then he gets the nomination, but delegates do their job.
2. Biden continues, Harris agrees to step aside, and Barack Obama becomes Biden's running mate. Biden agrees to vacate the office when unable to serve, making Obama President, who then selects Harris as VP.
I believe the Constitution allows this. Obama can't run for President again because of term limits, but he could run as Vice President and then serve as President if Biden is unable.
Though I grew up in Nebraska, a very Red state, I'm a lifelong Democrat. I've supported candidates at all levels, given significant money, and run for office a few times. I won a couple of times. I think the system is flawed, but it's what we have and we have to work with it.
I'm extremely concerned about the possibility that Trump might win. The Supreme Court is now political, mainly due to his work and McConnell's. If we have a court that is still more political, we're in deep trouble.
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It's certainly a mess, and as an interested spectator from the other side of the world the fact that Trump can even be considered a possibility is jaw dropping. And as you say now he has a very realistic chance.
I do like Biden and think he has done a very good job in office, but the Dems have not played this well. It should have been made clear that he was a one term President and spent the last 3 years grooming and marketing a successor. That would not have looked good for Harris but she has to toe the party line. Now whatever they choose to do threatens to splinter their base which they cannot afford.
As for your Option 2 Jim, the 12th Amendment reads that, "[N]o person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice president of the United States." So Obama is certainly ineligible. The fact that he cannot run and Trump can...a bit of a head scratcher.
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Every word of Jim's post is on track. Very sad.
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We're so screwed. :-\
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The fact the polls are even tied (or close to), implying that half the population actually supports a convicted lying narcissistic petulant child joke of a candidate is a testament to how screwed up the US is at the moment. Regardless of who wins this cycle, the future does not look bright as people don't pull towards the same general direction anymore, and are instead demonizing each other. I fear this will eventually lead to massive bloodshed, and religion fanaticism is a big driver in all of this. Handmaid's tale was supposed to be fiction...
I'll buy more popcorn.
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I blame Jill Biden
He could be on a beach someplace in the Caribbean.
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I would be up for Gretchen Witmer. But if there is a chance Biden would be out most likely we will get Kamala.
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I would be up for Gretchen Witmer. But if there is a change we will get Kamala.
I think that Kamala is just the press talking so far, but she's a reasonable choice. So is Witmer.
It will be up to the delegates to decide. Kamala needs to be careful not to get out in front of Biden until he decides to withdraw.
Oddly, I started thinking about Jesse Ventura. He was a great governor here in Minnesota, and Trump would have trouble getting a handle on him. It would make great theater, and that's apparently what a lot of people want.
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My favorite Jesse moment is small, but I think telling.
At one event a woman came up to him and complained about the amount of her child support payment. The governor asked her, where is the father. She basically said he isn't in the picture and the government is in that position. Jesse said, the state is not the father.
Very simple and pithy to my mind.
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I usually don't talk politics, but zybex's post reflects my feelings to a T. Social media has destroyed the human mind.
Ken
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I will vote for a box of rocks before I vote for Trump. I am in 100% complete agreement with Jim, but will add that IF Biden decides to step down, my favorite candidate is Gavin Newsom (right now anyway), as he has the youth, experience, and the feistiness that I believe Democrats really need right now, and he doesn't take any sh!t from anybody. At this point in time, nice guys finish last.
As for your Option 2 Jim, the 12th Amendment reads that, "[N]o person constitutionally ineligible to the office of president shall be eligible to that of vice president of the United States." So Obama is certainly ineligible. The fact that he cannot run and Trump can...a bit of a head scratcher.
Trump is "constitutionally ineligible" by way of his participation in an insurrection, yet SCOTUS is letting him run anyway. This is where the biggest danger is right now, as the current SCOTUS is going out of its way to protect Trump, and every move by Democrats will be shut down by it.
The Supreme Court is now political, mainly due to his work and McConnell's.
McConnell is a huge snake in the grass, but going forward the people to watch out for the most are Steve Bannon and Steven Miller, as well as the rest of the people behind Project 2025.
My feelings about MAGA are best reflected with this joke I heard recently:
"How many MAGA supporters does it take to change a lightbulb?"
"None....Trump just tells them that he already fixed it and then the supporters cheer him in the dark."
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I would also vote for Gavin Newsom.
I'll route my vote via Venezuela.
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This seems headed toward an open convention, something not seen since around 1960. Nominees, speeches, rounds and rounds of delegates voting.
Democracy.
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As a non-American, I am heartened to see your reactions to Trump. Sad that every election is even more crucial to saving democracy as we know it than the previous one. Trump must be kept out. Otherwise Putin wins, and not just in Amercia, but in Europe and many other places too. I am afraid.
A big chunk of the population lacks critical thinking skills, mostly because it is not taught. Meanwhile media, especially social media, seduces them and makes them feel special, edgy and "in the know" as it feeds them lies. The algorithms are flinging everything to see what sticks. If you're a MAGA supporter, you can say whatever you want. If you don't like Trump, you'll see "both sides are equally bad" plastering your news feeds. Yet, we all know a non-voter may as well be a Trump voter in this election. He needs to be beaten in November.
And that raises the question - why tf is he not in jail? How corrupt is the system that someone hoarding national secrets, and possibly selling them, is not dealt with swiftly and decisively?
Thank you to posters so far for somewhat restoring my faith in your country and its electorate. It's bleak looking in from outside - I sympathise how it must be inside.
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As a non-American, I am heartened to see your reactions to Trump. Sad that every election is even more crucial to saving democracy as we know it than the previous one. Trump must be kept out. Otherwise Putin wins, and not just in Amercia, but in Europe and many other places too. I am afraid.
A big chunk of the population lacks critical thinking skills, mostly because it is not taught. Meanwhile media, especially social media, seduces them and makes them feel special, edgy and "in the know" as it feeds them lies. The algorithms are flinging everything to see what sticks. If you're a MAGA supporter, you can say whatever you want. If you don't like Trump, you'll see "both sides are equally bad" plastering your news feeds. Yet, we all know a non-voter may as well be a Trump voter in this election. He needs to be beaten in November.
And that raises the question - why tf is he not in jail? How corrupt is the system that someone hoarding national secrets, and possibly selling them, is not dealt with swiftly and decisively?
Thank you to posters so far for somewhat restoring my faith in your country and its electorate. It's bleak looking in from outside - I sympathise how it must be inside.
George Carlin expressed the problem clearly when he said:
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups."
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My feelings about MAGA are best reflected with this joke I heard recently:
"How many MAGA supporters does it take to change a lightbulb?"
"None....Trump just tells them that he already fixed it and then the supporters cheer him in the dark."
This.. People do not think for themselves anymore.....
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Oh boy, those two major flubs in Biden's press conference yesterday... stick a fork in him, he's done. I really hope they nip this issue in the bud sooner or later, or it's going to get really bad really quickly. I suspect they're going to drag it out though.
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups."
We are watching the movie Idiocracy coming true before our very eyes. We're sooooooooo screwed. :-\
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Another Carlin quote:
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
Since an IQ of 100 is by definition the average, any large population will tend to have 50% of people below that. That correlates nicely with what we're seeing...
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Mmm, as a non-US citizen it does seem your politics is currently extremely divisive and hate (rather than passion) filled by both sides. This is not great. Reading this thread saddens me as it denigrates some ~50% of your population. 50%. Let that sink in. And that 50% has the same opinion of the other half.
...and now you are shooting your candidates.
Keep this up, and I'll get the King to revoke your Independance till you all learn to play nice.
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I blame it on Rupert Murdoch.
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That is fair enough. We did export him from Oz, and you made him a US Citizen.
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Want him back?
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Nope - International Rules of "Finders Keepers" says he is all yours now.
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On a more serious note, it is not all doom and gloom. About half the US votes Red, the other half blue. Sometimes red wins, sometimes blue win. Term limits ensure that one person cannot become a "dictator" for life. You have had Trump before, and Biden now. The world did not end either time. Both sides need to learn that when you lose, it was not stolen.
The thing that does get me is how both parties end up with their candidates? 330+ Million people to choose from and this is the best that can be found?
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On a more serious note, it is not all doom and gloom. About half the US votes Red, the other half blue. Sometimes red wins, sometimes blue win. Term limits ensure that one person cannot become a "dictator" for life. You have had Trump before, and Biden now. The world did not end either time. Both sides need to learn that when you lose, it was not stolen.
The thing that does get me is how both parties end up with their candidates? 330+ Million people to choose from and this is the best that can be found?
Trump plans on following the Project 2025 playbook, and if he is successful (and there is a good chance he will be), the term limits will be lifted and we will effectively get turned into a Banana Republic dictatorship with Trump and his cronies running the show and the oligarchs financing the whole thing, in much the same manner as Putin and Russia are doing now. This is why the temperature is so hot...we are facing the end of democracy, and I am NOT fear mongering here - the threat is very real. I know you are not an American, but you should Google "Project 2025" if you want to understand why this election is completely different than any previous election...we won't be able to vote the new government out in 4 years once they take over.
About 4 years ago I predicted that the US would enter Civil War 2, and I am sticking to that prediction, though I pray that I am wrong.
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I understand how close and passionate many are in the US about this election. I hope that an outsider's view may be more dispassionate. Personally, I think your prayers will be fulfilled:
- Lifting the term limits would require a constitutional change. 0 Chance of that.
- US will not be a Banana Republic regardless of who gets elected
- There will be no civil war
- There will be a vote in 4year time
This is the fear mongering and partisan hate I'm pushing back on both sides of the debate (regardless of if you are Red or Blue). For good or bad, your constitutional system is simply too robust for a 4 year term of any president to destroy. The USA will NOT be like Russia/Putin.
I'm old enough to have heard the tired argument that "this is the most important election in our history" more times than I can count.
You will not like this, but I think this is a picture of your new President by the way. He just won the election. I'd predict that the following President will be a Democrat (though I truly hope both parties put up far better candidates in 4 years times).
[Images removed by retired forum administrator]
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Is Australia still a "Constitutional" Monarchy?
edit by jmone to add "Constitutional"
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Yup. Long live the King.
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[Images removed by retired forum administrator]
Too close to the bone?
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Too close to the bone?
Trying to avoid burn-in. Old equipment.
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Fair Enough. For disclosure I'd consider myself a "Classical Liberal Democrat" so I do not align with either of your (or my) mainstream parties.
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I judge Trump based on his own words, his own actions, and not on slanted media reports on either side, nor on the opinions of people on social media. I have known him for about 20 years and know a LOT more about him than the average person, and some of my knowledge is first hand.
I got involved in a condo deal some years before he became president in 2016 with one of his so-called real estate companies, this one in Tampa Florida. I wanted to buy the condo as a retirement getaway for my wife and I, and I really admired Trump at the time as a top notch businessman and real estate developer, so I thought I was getting involved in a really good deal, as he pitched it, through his employees, presenting pictures, documentation, phone calls from employees, etc. as a project in which he would build one of the nicest condos "like none you've ever seen before", and he was going to build supporting business buildings in the area to turn it into a real luxury deal. He actually pitched the project quite a few times on his show, The Apprentice, giving his pitch in front of one of those table top 3D scale models that you see in the movies so often.
To make an already long story short, I did a LOT of research while this deal was in progress but before I actually shelled out the $130,000 that it was going to cost me for this prime deal, I started to get cold feet. At the last minute before wiring him the money, I decided that it just didn't feel right, so I backed out...THANK GOD I DID! That would have been money that I would never see again and I would have had nothing to show for it. Rather than me providing the "slanted, disgruntled" details, I leave it to you to Google his Tampa condo project for yourself.
I will say no more on the subject.
As far as the points that you listed, let me address them:
Lifting the term limits would require a constitutional change. 0 Chance of that.
Sorry, but you are incorrect...do your own research...there are ways around it through the Supreme Court...don't take my word for it.
US will not be a Banana Republic regardless of who gets elected
I will give you that one...we don't grow bananas here as far as I know...LOL. But once again, research Project 2025 and you will gain a greater understanding of how it is possible to turn the US into a dictatorship. The false belief that "It can't happen here" is what makes this situation so dangerous.
There will be no civil war
God, I really really hope you are right, but history proves that it can. The first Civil War was not going to happen either....but it did. Again, the best way to understand is to do research.
There will be a vote in 4year time
Same as above...I really really hope there will be another election. Throughout US history, the ability to elect a new Commander in Chief has been paramount in effecting change. The answer to this depends on the balance of power in the Senate and House, the biggest hurdle being to get a 2/3 majority in the Senate. And, BTW, there are ways to get around the Constitutional provision by taking the matter to the Supreme Court, and as it stands RIGHT NOW, Trump has 2/3 of it in his pocket (6 of 9 judges).
And let's not forget that this same Supreme Court just awarded Trump (and any other president) COMPLETE AND TOTAL IMMUNITY from prosecution for acts deemed to be "core Constitutional powers" AND complete immunity for acts considered to be "Official Acts" of his presidency, BUT the Supreme Court did not define what acts are considered "Official", so it will be fought in the courts, eventually landing in, you guessed it, the same Supreme Court that just granted that a president is above the law. So now the Supreme Court and the president can work hand in hand deciding what the president can do and what he can't, and since they are both from the same stable, you can rest assured that they will be much more inclined to side with Trump than with any Democrat.
I'm sorry for the rant, but this is just a tiny tiny part of the stuff I have uncovered through tons of research, not something I heard from Network News, social media "news" and people, and friends and aquaintances. I have been doing this for over 20 years, and that is why I am scared, because this time the Boy Who Cried Wolf is facing an actual wolf and nobody believes him because of all of his previous false alarms.
I hope none of this happens and we can all share a laugh about it at some later time. Heck, I'll fly down to the land down under and tie one on with ya, my treat, if everything goes well!
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I'd honestly say we're in a bit of a "cold" civil war already. And I don't think the conflicts between both sides is something they would be able to resolve in a satisfactory manner that everyone can agree to unfortunately.
I don't have a good feeling about the future (especially with all this crazy stuff happening the decade or two), because it feels like everything is building up towards something and something has got to give eventually. It's just a question of when and how.
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Exactly! You really have to live here to appreciate what is happening. Whatever way this election goes, there will be some trouble one way or the other. I have seen fights break out just because they heard someone "on the other side" talking a bit too loud and they didn't agree with what they heard. In my 70 years here, I have never experienced anything even remotely close to the current tense atmosphere.
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The Johnson years from 1963 to 1968 were pretty bad. War in Viet Nam, Civil Rights protests, Watts Riots, bloody Chicago Democratic convention. Then followed by Nixon ...
We didn't have a President who served two full terms after Eisenhower (1952 to 1960) until Reagan (1980 to 1988). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States
Bumper stickers then:
"America -- Love it or Leave it"
"My Country, Right or Wrong"
[Peace symbol] Footprint of the American Chicken"
"I'd Rather Be a Roper than a Doper"
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Fortunately, Elon Musk has the answers:
https://deadline.com/2024/07/elon-musk-fully-endorses-donald-trump-for-president-after-pennsylvaia-shooting-1236009762/
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I look forward to a beer with Bob! That to me seems like the best remedy. Chuck on a barbie, get some of the locals around for a good time and have a heated argument about how our footy team got robbed by the refs last week. Note: Don't do this in the EU - that will cause a riot! :)
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Re: Project 2025 - no argument that it is basically a frightening blueprint for a Christian Nationalist makeover of US government that would do permanent damage.
Trump has recently distanced himself from it, saying he doesn't know the people who created it (which of course is a lie) and he disagrees with parts of it (not sure what parts). I'm not entirely sure what to make of that. One of the articles I found on this suggested a reason that does make sense to me - it's not "his". For better or worse (usually worse) his ego has a huge impact on how he does things, and having something a different group set up doesn't really fit well in his mentality. It might actually be better for the country that a carefully crafted plan is not what he'll do, as his impulsive style hasn't led to many results most of the time.
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Sadly, if Trump gets into office once again (whether he wins the vote or not), this great experiment (Democracy) will come to an end.
He almost got away with taking over and becoming a dictator for life last time, and the judges he helped to power (Supreme court and Federal) have worked diligently for the last 3 1/2 years to circumvent the things that kept it from happening back then. If he takes office, he will die in office, and will have rigged the system so that his chosen will take over, and no amount of "voting" will remove the Republican rule in my lifetime.
Civil war will be the only way of changing the power structure, and that's likely to result in the US becoming multiple countries.
I really hope this does not come to pass, but the fact that it's even possible signals to me that "Democracy" is not going to last long in the US, no matter who the next President is.
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I want to see him run against Adam Schiff.
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I'd rather see some younger candidates.... like anyone not yet eligible for Social Security retirement benefits would be a start ;)
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Sadly, I am with Awesome Donkey and Bob on this one.
Trump has tried to distance himself from Project 2025 because as awareness of it grew, people became uneasy about him. However, there is video of him not very long ago praising the Heritage Foundation (?), the architects for Project 2025. We're in a bad situation here.
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It's now being reported that Biden is seriously considering dropping out. Things could get really interesting very quickly.
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Biden bowed out!
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The problem is, I don't believe as-is Biden would've stood a chance against Trump, especially after the debate and especially after the assassination attempt. Even worse I believe Kamala Harris stands less of a chance against Trump. If she becomes the nominee post DNC, Trump won, no doubt about it.
I wonder if anyone else is going to throw their hat into the arena to try to take the convention and claim delegates? Bernie Sanders? Is he still popular with the younger voters? How's his health compared to Biden?
We're so, really, definitely screwed. :-\
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I think many will vote for anyone that is not Biden or Trump. Polls show Kamala ahead of Trump, she has a good shot. Not the ideal candidate at this time, but at least she's young.
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I want to give Biden a nod for trying to fight the odds, but in the end, deciding that the country needed a change.
If it's Kamala, then fine. Her polling against trump is about even with Biden's at this time.
I can think of several others who would also be good. Nobody's perfect.
What's important now is that we have a careful discussion about what we want and that we let our leaders know.
The corrupt (political) Supreme Court and the abortion issue may take on more importance now. I think many don't realize how the blatantly political appointments have led to losing some of our rights.
But, Thank You Joe Biden!
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"“Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President, and is certainly not fit to serve — And never was!” Mr. Trump wrote on social media shortly after Mr. Biden announced that he was ending his campaign." -- NY Times
Let's hope Trump bows out now. Sanity is a necessary quality for serving as President. Honesty helps. Decency. We've had many excellent Republicans in the office.
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I think many will vote for anyone that is not Biden or Trump. Polls show Kamala ahead of Trump, she has a good shot. Not the ideal candidate at this time, but at least she's young.
I don't think that's the issue. I think with her it's the same issue Hillary Clinton had (well, to an extent, her other skeletons in her closet also attributed to her loss) in 2016 and it's something I don't think most people understand really.... there's a lot of people out there not ready to have a woman President. Yes, even in this day and age. I don't think it'll happen (well, if it'll happen depending on what happens like Trump getting elected and Project 2025 being rolled out) at least for another generation or two. Unless some miracle happens, which I don't think it will.
Let's hope Trump bows out now. Sanity is a necessary quality for serving as President. Honesty helps. Decency. We've had many excellent Republicans in the office.
In my honest opinion, sanity bowed out as a necessary quality a long time ago sadly or else we wouldn't be in the shape we're in now. Hell, sanity and decency in general seems to be part of a dying breed. I would highly welcome both back right now with open arms though...
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How the nomination process works: https://yabb.jriver.com/interact/index.php/topic,139300.0.html
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I think Kamala will be nominated with virtually no opposition in the party. And I think she has a decent shot of winning.
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Harris already has secured a majority of the delegates. Clearly the Dem party coalesced around Harris within 24 hours, which indicates the pump was primed in all likelihood. The funds that were bottled up flowed almost immediately along with public support. It's hard to imagine a truly open DNC given today - Harris just has to solidify a VP pick soon.
They seemed to start right off to try flipping the age issue around on Trump but despite his various gaffs and so on, there's no chance it sticks - he's got better Teflon than Reagan did.
I did see an image going around already which made me chuckle, of a $5K donation to Harris from Trump in 2011 for her AG campaign. (Which she apparently didn't keep.)
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I am getting rid of my Yugo
taking its place is A New 2025 Honda Civic Top of the line Trim, Fully loaded
This will be my last car.
I requested this car from Honda and kept tabs on it being built in Japan, including the ride here to the States. I just got it yesterday. The dealer had it for a week fitting all the addons to the car.
(http://centercitybbs.com/images/NewCar.JPG)
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3 months of of silence but no shortage of roller coaster action out there.
I'm guessing there'll be some serious noise in less than 2 days time, even though a final call may take some time after that.
All these poll results being quoted.
My guess is that the people in the political middle from the states that are hanging in the balance will be weary of being asked to offer their opinions to a pollster -just a guess. Assuming that's the case, then even if the polls weren't close they still wouldn't be worth a cracker.
Bring on the result .. please.
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The screen writers for this show have been terrific. Once of the best TV Series. All sorts of villains, heros, sub plots, twists and turns. The audience looks really engaged. I for one will be watching the season finale. I'm also guessing there will be additional bonus episodes after today.
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The twist at the end is for one candidate to see how many people one can offend and still potentially win?
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It think it goes from Game of Thrones to Judge Judy!
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Looks like no bonus episodes. :(
It seems that team "red" will win everything at this stage: Electoral College, Popular Vote, Senate, House(?). I did not see that coming.
- Congratulations to team red: Well done. I truly hope you can unite your country and govern for all, as the "other" side are your fellow citizens and more unites you than divides you. Have a great term and I wish you well.
- Commiserations to team blue: I know it hurts, but you will bounce back stronger for next time. While it will be hard, I hope you support your new Government as they (and their supporters) are your fellow citizens and more unites you than divides you.
As in all elections in the US, democracy is the winner & there will be another shot at contesting the title in 4 years. Something you cannot say in many countries around the world.
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They can now adopt this new hat.
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To be perfectly honest it basically went as I thought it would, unfortunately. I knew she practically didn't have a chance and a big part of it, I believe, is that there's a good number of people out there who don't want/aren't ready for a woman to be president, plain and simple. Maybe in a generation or two... unless we end up fully destroying the planet by then, which could happen.
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I knew she practically didn't have a chance and a big part of it, I believe, is that there's a good number of people out there who don't want/aren't ready for a woman to be president, plain and simple.
I said these exact words to my wife last night. I long to be proved wrong, but I see no positives in this outcome, none at all.
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I visited the USA on the weekend. The first time in many years.
We were not eager to visit because the border crossings were always weird if we got a young person. They appeared a bit mental, but the older aged border guards were always super nice. My wife is French so she had to do iris scans, palm scans, face scan, pay fees, and do a bunch of paper work. Then we were banned for a while for being purebloods. The wife has a Canadian passport now, and it appears we are no longer second class citizens, so we went for a visit.
The border guard, who was young, was very nice and pleasant. We went to Haines. Everyone we met there, local or visiting, was very nice. It was a very enjoyable trip albeit very expensive. Inflation there is insane. Everything was twice the price of Canada which has had everything at least double in price in the last 4 years. It was also concerning that almost all businesses were closed. It is not tourist season so things should be closed, but almost everything had a For Sale sign on it.
Because everything was closed, and the Brewery, Meadery, and Distillery close very early, we ended up watching some American Television. My God. We got the full insanity of your media, and experienced it pre-election.
From an outsider looking in, and by the election results, it appears that the majority of Americans are unhappy with the current administration. Why could this be?
I would think inflation, immigration, lock downs and mandates, Ukraine spending, cognitive abilities and the hiding of these abilities, election integrity, sanctions that only hurt Americans, Afghanistan evacuation, “Russian interference”, the “insurrection”, the summer of love, de dollarisation, war on food and farming, skipping primaries, Peanut the squirrel, lawfare against political opponents, a certain laptop, DEI in everything including high level politicians and judges, censorship, taxes, net zero. Just to name a few.
Is life better now than in 2016-2020? Perhaps for some, life is not better, and they think life will be better under Trump. This does not make them low IQ, racist, misogynist, or members of the socialist party of Germany in the first half of the century.
The left’s campaign appeared to be focused almost entirely on identity. Vote for a woman, vote for a person of colour, abortions for all, abortions, diddy list celebrity endorsements, abortions, joy, abortions, anyone but trump. Fine whatever, but perhaps people not interested in the genitalia and skin colour of their leaders are tired of being called Nazis. Maybe calling people Nazis over and over dehumanizes them and can lead to unhinged people turning to violence to stop these "Nazis".
I would be more worried about who has bailed Trump out in the past. Surely, he is owned by them / him. What are his connections to big tech? I’m looking at you Mike Pence. What are his connections with Musk the snake in the grass who is trying to turn twitter into WeChat social credit app. What will happen when your dollar fails? Maybe there will be a WeChat like app to take over.
There are lots of reasons to vote for someone. In your Coke Pepsi elections people can only pick what they perceive to be the lesser of 2 evils, or the person that will make their life better. Life has sucked pretty badly for a lot of people for the last 4 years, it makes sense to me that they want a change. I hope people can tolerate this idea, as there has been a lot of intolerance over the last 4 years.
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The total votes that Trump won by in MI, WI and PA COMBINED were 120k. 100k in MI alone choose uncommitted in the primary because of Gaza. One in five said they were factoring that into whether or not to vote. 80% of dems support a ceasefire but Harris choose to double down on Gaza, sent clowns like Bill Clinton and Richie Torres to scold Arabs and Muslims in MI and run with neocons like Liz Cheney. Embracing the Cheney's always had a 0% chance of working.
Note that Harris ran a distant 3rd in Dearborn MI which pre-Gaza Biden won with 80%
Choosing to ignore economic issues also cost the dems. Harris got crushed in Missouri which voted for BOTH a minimum wage increase and abortion rights.
Of course Harris couldn't run on the minimum wage increase (which Biden ran on and didn't deliver) because her Wall Street donor class didn't want it.
With a turnout of 17 million less than the last election it's surprising that it was even that close.
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Well, at least the numbers align the popular and electoral college vote. So, as they say in politics, "Congratulations to the winner".
Plus, those voting for Trump should have no illusions what sort of person they voted for thanks to experience. With the likely situation that the house will stay in Republican hands, the next two years will see how much of the various "concepts of a plan" will be implemented and what effect they will have in reality. The time for guessing and prediction will be over. If the hip pocket voting that has helped determine the outcome proves reliable, then the US will end up in a better place in dollar terms at least. I'm not convinced because it's unclear how much of what Trump has said on the election trail will actually come to pass. So, as noted before, nothing beats an empirical test.
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I lean toward "Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs" in how a person will vote:
- When the economy is going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the higher level issues (Self-Actualization, Self-Esteem, Love and Belonging)
- When the economy is not going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the lower level issues (Safety and Security, Physiological Needs)
I think (this time around) more voters were concerned about the lower level issues and hence the swing.
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I also like this heat map (it is incomplete as counting is not reached 95%+ in all counties, but you get the idea). There are some clusters where Blue gained, but it really is a pretty even swing to Red.
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I lean toward "Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs" in how a person will vote:
- When the economy is going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the higher level issues (Self-Actualization, Self-Esteem, Love and Belonging)
- When the economy is not going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the lower level issues (Safety and Security, Physiological Needs)
I think (this time around) more voters were concerned about the lower level issues and hence the swing.
Spot on.
What I find astounding is that according to reporting in the Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/17/americas-economy-is-bigger-and-better-than-ever (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/17/americas-economy-is-bigger-and-better-than-ever)
Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. Lately, China too has gone backwards. Having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic, its nominal gdp has slipped from about three-quarters of America’s in 2021 to two-thirds today.
The US is doing better than the rest of the world by a long chalk. However if that economic reality isn't felt by people who are just trying to make it through each week, then all that helicopter view economic analysis just won't cut through unless the political messaging stacks up in a way that makes sense.
Trump's messaging obviously worked best.
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Going to an election focusing on higher order needs when an increasing number of the voting population are feeling lower order issues is not a great strategy.
...but, it works both ways.
Here in Australia (many elections ago), a consecutive conservative gvt lost the following election.... because the economic situation was not good for most people. Maslow postulates that once a level has been achieved it is no longer a motivator and as you strive for things in the next levels. In this case in Australia, the conservative party lost as they were campaigning on "look how well we have done, and will continue to do" forgetting that people now already felt that this level had been satiated... and the alternative party campaigned on higher order needs. They won big time, with even the PM losing his seat.
It's a lesson that both sides never seem to learn (anywhere in the world).
- "It's about the economy stupid" appeals when most voters feel insecure about their lower-level needs.
- "It's about the great good stupid" appeals when most voters feel secure about their lower-level needs.
We also have to keep in mind this is about an individual's personal motivation. I can understand why (say celebrities) that endorsed team Blue are shocked and outraged that team Red won. They are far higher up (and lower in #) of those that swung red. It does not make those that went team red "stupid". They just have a different set of motivations at that particular time.
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Cicero (https://www.readhoot.com/cicero-quotes/) is quoted to have said:
We learn nothing from history except that we learn nothing from history.
There's no qualification of whether that history is ancient or modern. Even though that pearl of wisdom dates back over 2 millennia, my view is that it is still valid today.
Recent history globally, given the numerous elections over the past year or so in different parts of the world, has shown that incumbent governments are being blamed for the pain of inflation (regardless of whether that blame is justified or not). Bear in mind that there's a qualifier that the election is fair.
As you correctly point out, the phenomenon is not new and the correlations are strong. So, not taking stock of these influences and sending the wrong message is a recipe for a change of government.
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The one that wins the middle wins. There are not enough votes at the extremes.
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I'm trying to find some peace about the situation we're in. Not reading the news is helping.
To your point about incumbency, a lot of people are unhappy with governments that have become more and more invasive. And corrupt. So they tend to vote incumbents out. From memory, our Presidents have alternated between Republican and Democratic for a while.
There are now seven billion people on the planet and only a few thousand tigers and elephants. Songbirds are decreasing because of loss of habitat. Damage to the ocean.
Too many people are competing for too few resources. Water even.
Resources are in the hands of the privileged few. These few have free rein in influencing elections. Musk bought votes and nobody stopped him.
Governments fail to solve basic problems because it's not in their self-interest.
When Gaza and Lebanon descend into chaos, it's no great surprise. Not enough land. Too many people. Tribal hatred.
See why I've sworn off the news?
Going back to my recliner now. I'll be 80 in a month. I need to find my teeth so I can keep my strength up.
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Since we are taking a global view. It is the simply the best of times, and our children will live in even better times. I mean that seriously.
You would rather be living now than at any other time in the history of humanity.
Sure there are issues, but humans are fantastic at finding solutions, and it is relentless. Life is better now for the average human than it has ever been and is trending to an even brighter future (I've tried to include both the Global and USA trend lines as a comparison). I was going to add Minnestoa to the charts but it sounds all doom and gloom. :) JimH needs to get out in the sunshine, or simply stop reading whatever "news" source is feeding the negativity as it is simply not factual.
Basic Needs : These trends are fantastic over time
- Life Expectancy at Birth (but you can see the impact of Covid-19) - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Child Mortality Rates - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?time=earliest..latest&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Share of Population Living in Extreme Poverty - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-population-in-extreme-poverty?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- GDP per Capita - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Literacy Rate - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates?country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Share of the Population with Access to Electricity - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-the-population-with-access-to-electricity?tab=chart&country=USA~OWID_WRL
Higher Order Needs : These are some of the more popular topics being debated, and many of them show a less well defined trend, ones that move up and down, or even regresses.
- Income Inequality - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/inequality?tab=chart&time=1820..latest&Data=World+Inequality+Database+%28Incomes+before+tax%29&Indicator=Gini+coefficient&country=USA~OWID_WRL
- Per capita CO2 Emissions - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?tab=chart&country=USA~OWID_WRL
- Political Civil Liberties Index - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-civil-liberties-index?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Human Rights Index - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/human-rights-index-vdem?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Social Rights for Women - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-countries-with-key-economic-and-social-rights-for-women
- LGBT+ Rights - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-protecting-core-lgbt-rights
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I'm also going to tackle the myth of finite resources.
- Quantitatively a resource is finite
- Economically they are infinite.
Let's take Oil as an example. It's been peddled for most of my life that we are about to "run out", yet we never do... and we never will. There is very simple economic reason we will never run out:
- As oil gets more scarce the price rises.
- As the price rises, it makes previously uneconomic reserves economically viable
- As the price rises, substitution takes place as other alternatives become more economically viable (solar, wind, nuclear, bio-fuel, whatever).
Same with Water. We will never "run out". It might get more expensive to get the quantity we need in the location we want, but we will not "run out". The stuff is even trivial to "make", or "desalinate" but both are far more expensive than digging a hole and letting it fill up with rain.
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Myth. Ha!
Apply your logic to songbirds who need certain habitat to survive. Will evolution save them? Sure, but it's going to dump humans along the way.
Water? You must know about all the crap in our water. Microplastics, anyone?
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Since we are taking a global view. It is the simply the best of times, and our children will live in even better times. I mean that seriously.
My kids can't afford a house. They start in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. The only way for them to do it is to get someone else's help.
My first house was $13,000. Then there were a couple in the $20,000's. I was earning $10/hour doing construction. The math worked then. Now you need to be upper middle class, at least.
Still lookinng for my teeth.
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Income Distribution
1% of the world's population owns 50% of the wealth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth#:~:text=half%20of%20the%20world's%20net,97%25%20of%20the%20total%20wealth.
Take a look at a book called The Working Poor (https://www.amazon.com/Working-Poor-Invisible-America/dp/0375708219). This describes the lives of people who are not unemployed. They have jobs, but they are so close to poverty that small events like a car breaking down can put them over the edge. I've seen this first hand.
You can't use statistics to talk about quality of life.
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I, for one, welcome our imminent AI overlords. Maybe that will fix things.
Ref: Neal Asher's Polity.
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Microplastics, anyone?
This. I've been reading about how the oceans are full of them and literal islands of pollution that exist just under the surface of the water. And about how oxygen levels are decreasing in places and fish literally can drown from it.
The decline of the oceans is probably the most immediate issue that if left unchecked (or ignored which is mostly happening) bad things can (and will) happen to the human race. It seems like it's largely being ignored by officials... I guess if they don't mention it it'll magically go away? Disclaimer: it won't.
Regarding the comment about living in any other time, personally if a time machine existed I would happily go back to a different time like the 1950s when there was a boom happening and the environment wasn't that bad yet. But alas, no such thing and here we are living on a spinning plate on a stick that's beginning to teeter.
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I, for one, welcome our imminent AI overlords. Maybe that will fix things.
Yes, with the HKs and T-1000s. ;D
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On a more serious note, I kind of agree with Jmone - the world as a whole has never been better. It's just that this time around we have the capability of ending it all in a blink on an eye. Saying that 90% of the population lives better now than 500 years ago doesn't really change the fact that those 90% are getting a rotten deal compared to the other 10%, even if the inequality chart shows it's improving. In the past, when people were desperate they would lead a local revolution and cause some deaths; Nowadays, they can effectively cause a global war leading to global destruction. We are on the brink, in some ways.
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The planet is doing great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmo8sh77G6Y&t=169s
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They are in the glass of water by your rocker.
- Of course there are issues, and housing affordability can be one of them pending where you live in the world (it's an even worse issue in Australia than the US).
- I made no comment (or have any factual insight) about song birds, tigers, elephants or the issues around bio diversity in general. I simply don't know enough on the subject to make a comment, so I did not.
- Your earlier comments was on water (and resource) scarcity. When the microplastics issue in drinking water gets enough traction, then it will be solved (it's technically trivial to do, but adds costs).
Is life better for your kids than it is for you? I can only hope so, but I'd be guessing.
Is it better for the average global human. Yes. Without a doubt.
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Better for us doesn't mean better for the planet.
I mentioned tigers above. Here's a list of carnivores:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_carnivorans_by_population
Think about it. 7 billion people, a few thousand of many of these animals.
This isn't about how good is Netflix or how fast is your car. If we screw this up, it's the planet at risk. If we lose enough pollinators, we don't eat.
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Income Distribution
One of the links I posted was to the time scale for Income Inequality (Gini Index) that shows how it has changed over time. It is showing that while it has been recently increasing in the US and decreasing world, the US is still better than the world average.
You can't use statistics to talk about quality of life.
Sure you can.
- Here is one example (Australia wins in this one!) - https://www.worlddata.info/quality-of-life.php
- You can even look up Minnesota (or other localities) on this OECD model - https://www.oecdregionalwellbeing.org/US27.html
What you can't do is take that data and apply it to how an individual feels about their quality of life. A well off man, running his own business in a great part of the world may still be unhappy. The opposite can also be true.
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The planet is doing great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmo8sh77G6Y&t=169s
That's actually pretty good!
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7 billion people
Probably will not help your mood, but we are almost 8.2 Billion now. India has also taken over as the largest population. Growth is slowing and is expected to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086 then start declining.
https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time
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...I would happily go back to a different time like the 1950s when there was a boom happening .....
Sounds great! Well, as long as you were a Straight White Male, Christian, preferably Republican, not drafted for the Korean war, and had just built your fancy new Nuclear Fallout Shelter stocked with the FCDA's recommended seven-day supply of food and water.
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Probably will not help your mood, but we are almost 8.2 Billion now.
What. My mood is the problem now? I never said I wasn't grumpy.
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I just figured you'd like 8.2 less than 7.
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You can't use statistics to talk about quality of life.
I'd say that you can but if it's a political situation, it won't land with the majority out there - maybe because there's not enough time to parse the data, not enough understanding to make sense of it or it simply doesn't help pay the bill that the debt collector at the door is demanding cash for.
Useful piece interviewing Jonathan Swan - remember those internet memes from the interview with DJT that he did mid-Covid when he worked for Axios? Yep that guy with the Aussie accent and the RM Williams boots:
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/global-roaming/global-roaming-jonathan-swan-trump/104453264 (https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/global-roaming/global-roaming-jonathan-swan-trump/104453264)
From what I've taken in over the last few days, he provides the clearest description of how the GOP machine delivered the result. Doesn't change anything but I'm the sort of person who likes to understand, "How the hell did that happen?"
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...I would happily go back to a different time like the 1950s when there was a boom happening...
Sounds great! Well, as long as you were a Straight White Male, Christian, preferably Republican, not drafted for the Korean war, and had just built your fancy new Nuclear Fallout Shelter stocked with the FCDA's recommended seven-day supply of food and water.
This reminds me of "Starry Messenger" by Neil deGrasse Tyson. Here's a quote:
"Whether or not day-to-day feels this way, civilization has made great social advances over the decades and centuries. Progressive changes in laws, legislation, and attitudes around the world have, in some areas, brought the diversity of race and gender to social levels that approximate Martin Luther King Jr.'s famous line from his 1963 “I Have a Dream” speech:
"I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."
One last thought experiment bears this truth. Imagine you're offered the opportunity to enter a time machine and go back to any previous moment in human history. Where and when would you choose? The White, cisgender, heterosexual male has his pick of the timeline—this traveler to the past will be welcomed everywhere and everywhen. If that's not you, then you'd better think hard about the time and place you'd like to arrive. Are you female, a person of color, disabled, queer, or any combination of these? When was it better for you? A thousand years ago? Five hundred? A hundred? Fifty years ago? Ten? Five? For me, I'm good with the present. I'd rather not be declined a taxi ride, overlooked for job opportunities, denied a bank loan, or redlined from my choice of housing. With childhood ambitions of being a scientist, I don't want to be someone's servant, nor do I fancy being purchased and owned by another human being who thinks I'm not entirely human."
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MLK Jr. really nailed it. One of the greatest lines in history.
This reminds me of "Starry Messenger" by Neil deGrasse Tyson. Here's a quote:
.....
The White, cisgender, heterosexual male has his pick of the timeline—this traveler to the past will be welcomed everywhere and everywhen.[/i]
....
Mmmm, I get his msg but it is not correct. I'd suggest he would risk being slaughtered or enslaved if he appeared in many of the great past civilizations - Myans, Mongol, Caliphates, etc... basically anywhere with a homogenous population would be a big risk. TBH, you would probably still get slaughtered or enslaved under the Romans. Could you even conjugate a verb in Latin? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lczHvB3Y9s Brian could not :) !