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I am getting rid of my Yugo

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jmone:
I also like this heat map (it is incomplete as counting is not reached 95%+ in all counties, but you get the idea).  There are some clusters where Blue gained, but it really is a pretty even swing to Red.

astromo:

--- Quote from: jmone on November 08, 2024, 03:29:39 pm ---I lean toward "Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs" in how a person will vote:
- When the economy is going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the higher level issues (Self-Actualization, Self-Esteem, Love and Belonging)
- When the economy is not going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the lower level issues (Safety and Security, Physiological Needs)

I think (this time around) more voters were concerned about the lower level issues and hence the swing.

--- End quote ---

Spot on.

What I find astounding is that according to reporting in the Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/17/americas-economy-is-bigger-and-better-than-ever

--- Quote ---Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. Lately, China too has gone backwards. Having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic, its nominal gdp has slipped from about three-quarters of America’s in 2021 to two-thirds today.
--- End quote ---
The US is doing better than the rest of the world by a long chalk. However if that economic reality isn't felt by people who are just trying to make it through each week, then all that helicopter view economic analysis just won't cut through unless the political messaging stacks up in a way that makes sense.

Trump's messaging obviously worked best.

jmone:
Going to an election focusing on higher order needs when an increasing number of the voting population are feeling lower order issues is not a great strategy.

...but, it works both ways. 

Here in Australia (many elections ago), a consecutive conservative gvt lost the following election.... because the economic situation was not good for most people.  Maslow postulates that once a level has been achieved it is no longer a motivator and as you strive for things in the next levels.  In this case in Australia, the conservative party lost as they were campaigning on "look how well we have done, and will continue to do" forgetting that people now already felt that this level had been satiated... and the alternative party campaigned on higher order needs.  They won big time, with even the PM losing his seat. 

It's a lesson that both sides never seem to learn (anywhere in the world). 
- "It's about the economy stupid" appeals when most voters feel insecure about their lower-level needs. 
- "It's about the great good stupid" appeals when most voters feel secure about their lower-level needs. 

We also have to keep in mind this is about an individual's personal motivation.  I can understand why (say celebrities) that endorsed team Blue are shocked and outraged that team Red won.  They are far higher up (and lower in #) of those that swung red.  It does not make those that went team red "stupid".  They just have a different set of motivations at that particular time. 

astromo:
Cicero is quoted to have said:

--- Quote ---We learn nothing from history except that we learn nothing from history.
--- End quote ---
There's no qualification of whether that history is ancient or modern. Even though that pearl of wisdom dates back over 2 millennia, my view is that it is still valid today.

Recent history globally, given the numerous elections over the past year or so in different parts of the world, has shown that incumbent governments are being blamed for the pain of inflation (regardless of whether that blame is justified or not). Bear in mind that there's a qualifier that the election is fair.

As you correctly point out, the phenomenon is not new and the correlations are strong. So, not taking stock of these influences and sending the wrong message is a recipe for a change of government.

jmone:
The one that wins the middle wins.  There are not enough votes at the extremes. 

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