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[JimH]

For those who think the world is moving toward Apple, here's a disappointing report.

74.6 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in April 2011, up 13 percent from the three-month period ending in January 2011. Google Android ranked as the top operating system with 36.4 percent of U.S. smartphone subscribers, up 5.2 percentage points. Apple also gained share, capturing the #2 position with 26.0 percent of the smartphone market. RIM ranked third with 25.7 percent share, followed by Microsoft (6.7 percent) and Palm (2.6 percent).

Samsung's market share of smart phones is about 3 times bigger than Apple's.

Full press release from comscore, the survey organization:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comscore-reports-april-2011-us-mobile-subscriber-market-share-123098853.html

[BryanC]

That goes to show how much advertising/news/blogging time is dedicated to Apple loyalists.

[bob]

For those who think the world is moving toward Apple, here's a disappointing report.

Samsung's market share of smart phones is about 3 times bigger than Apple's.

Full press release from comscore, the survey organization:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comscore-reports-april-2011-us-mobile-subscriber-market-share-123098853.html

From what I can see, a lot of those new android smart phones are simply replacing old android's that became obsolete before reaching the end of the contract.
Also, I think fragmentation is likely to slow down android growth.

[JimH]

From what I can see, a lot of those new android smart phones are simply replacing old android's that became obsolete before reaching the end of the contract.

It happens with Apple, too.  One of my daughters is on her fifth iPhone.  Cracked the glass, dropped it in the river, left it somewhere, and so on.  It's an inherited trait.

[bob]

It happens with Apple, too.  One of my daughters is on her fifth iPhone.  Cracked the glass, dropped it in the river, left it somewhere, and so on.  It's an inherited trait.

Of course there will be replacement for broken/lost phones however I'm referring to the phone being obsolete. There are at least 4 versions of android OS in the field with more coming soon. There are 2 versions of IOS. The consistency of UI/feature set is valuable even if one can do some obscure thing on a particular android phone that one can not do on a iphone.

[JimH]

Of course there will be replacement for broken/lost phones however I'm referring to the phone being obsolete. There are at least 4 versions of android OS in the field with more coming soon. There are 2 versions of IOS. The consistency of UI/feature set is valuable even if one can do some obscure thing on a particular android phone that one can not do on a iphone.

Isn't Apple on its fourth generation phone?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iphone

I have a couple of friends who just buy the newest one each time it comes out.

[JimH]

89.9% of Androids are on Android 2.1 or above:

Android 2.2 57.7%

Android 2.1 25.2%

Android 2.3.3 6.0%

Android 2.3 1.0%

Source: Google

[bob]

Isn't Apple on its fourth generation phone?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iphone

I have a couple of friends who just buy the newest one each time it comes out.

2 versions total of ios and nearly identical ui

[bob]

89.9% of Androids are on Android 2.1 or above:

Android 2.2 57.7%

Android 2.1 25.2%

Android 2.3.3 6.0%

Android 2.3 1.0%

Source: Google

Plenty of people still on contract using 1.5 and 1.6 phones. They can't upgrade without breaking contract (I know one personally). The price of breaking the contract to get a new phone should be factored into total cost of owning an android phone. One MAY get a new iPhone every time they come out but one shouldn't be forced to get one to get a current feature set.

[BryanC]

I think once Ice Cream Sandwich is released a lot of the fragmentation will subside. I don't see it being a huge problem to begin with, however.

[glynor]

Isn't Apple on its fourth generation phone?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iphone

I have a couple of friends who just buy the newest one each time it comes out.

They are, but my wife's almost two year old iPhone 3GS is indistinguishable from my iPhone 4 in software, except for a few hardware features.  My old iPhone 3G still runs iOS 4 for the person I sold it to (though some features are unavailable, of course).  All of the apps work pretty much no matter what, unless they need some specific hardware feature (which is very rare).  I buy my apps ONCE and they work on all of our devices, and mostly the same apps run optimized on the iPad too (some require separate purchases, if the developer chooses to market it that way, but really most of mine don't).  And, all of my iOS devices have been fully supported with OS updates for more than two years.  When iOS 5 comes out in the fall, both my iPhone 4 and my wife's 3GS will get it on the same day as everyone else.

The same thing is NOT true of Android.  It is really, in my opinion, the biggest single problem with Android.  You don't buy a "Google Android" device.  You buy a Samsung Android device, or a Motorola Android device, or a HTC Android device.  You rely on these manufacturers for OS updates, mostly which never come or come absurdly late, and this hamstrings the developers.  Just look at what the developers of Angry Birds said: http://www.rovio.com/index.php?mact=Blogs,cntnt01,showentry,0&cntnt01entryid=47&cntnt01returnid=58

As a developer of a high-end app, you're dealing with a wide variety of different hardware specs, software versions, screen resolutions, keyboard configurations, and... Perhaps the worst, carrier/handset maker "deals" (Want a Netflix app?  Hope you bought an LG phone, because that Samsung or Motorola Atrix won't cut it.)  It is like the DLL hell of Windows days gone by on steroids.  The variety of handset designs is certainly one of the biggest strengths of the platform, but it is also its biggest weakness.

Google has made some "promises" in this area recently with regards to the upcoming software releases.  We will see.  There was a LOT of wiggle room in those statements, and very very few details.  From everything I've read and heard about it, those deals were finalized with the handset makers literally days before it was announced, and the agreements were all very "conceptual" and not very heavy on the details.  From what I've read, they're now promising that you'll be able to get "software updates" for 18 months after release on "supported devices".  No details on what that means... Do you get software updates directly from Google on day one?  Almost certainly not.  Do you get one update in that 18 months?  Two?  Is there any promises on how many for any given handset?  How quickly will they come to your phone after Google releases them?  Will the handset makers and carriers be able to selectively deactivate features?  How do you know if your phone will "support" future releases?

Sorry... If they want to fix the problem, they need to treat their OS like a platform, and release the OS themselves directly to consumers.  If your device meets the minimum hardware specs, you should be able to download an updater and apply it, at the same time as everyone else.  Anything else is marketing mumbo-jumbo, and the handset makers will STILL use new OS releases to drive new device sales.

[glynor]

That, and I am constantly playing with the tester Android devices we get here, hoping that one will be good enough....

Show me ONE, just one, app as polished as iMovie, Garage Band, Keynote, Navigon, iTeleport, or AirVideo.  There are good apps for Android.  Quite a few of them, actually.  But the Marketplace conditions just don't allow developers to spend the resources on developing applications of that class.  The vast majority of the stuff in the Android Market all feels like Linux software...  Cool, and often quite useful, but not polished at all, and not something I'd recommend to my mom.

[raldo]

Apple and Android today are like Apple and Microsoft "yesterday".

One software platform locked to "one" hardware platform vs. one software platform on many hardware platforms.

There "was" a stable evolutionary equilibrium over many years. Maybe the results on top of this thread shows that we're moving towards a stable equilibrium in the Apple/Android distribution.

[glynor]

For those who think the world is moving toward Apple, here's a disappointing report.

Samsung's market share of smart phones is about 3 times bigger than Apple's.

By the way... Every year, Android fans post these kinds of numbers this quarter.  To be clear, what Jim said isn't true at all.  Samsung's market share of smart phones is NOT 3 times bigger than Apple's.

Samsung's Market Share of total mobile subscribers was 25.4% average for the quarter ending April 2011.  A good thing for Samsung, no doubt, but that includes WAY more than smartphones (mostly, very low end free voice phones and feature phones).  Smartphones accounted for roughly 27% of the total mobile phone sales for Q1 2011, so when you sell a high-volume of very-low-profit "dumb phones" you are going to, of course, capture a big piece of the total phone unit sales numbers (by the standards as you'd get by reading only the link Jim posted, Nokia has absolutely nothing to worry about, except that they do).  Also, you're likely to see highly touted numbers for sales for just that quarter (where Apple's only release is almost a year old, and Samsung/Motorola/HTC/whomever all released new devices that quarter), written in such a way that you have to actually look at the data to realize they're talking about just quarterly sales figures, not total unit share.

Unit share for smartphones for Q1 2011 was like this:

Apple: 20%
Samsung: 13%
RIM: 16%
Nokia: 26%

PS.  Sigh...

That goes to show how much advertising/news/blogging time is dedicated to Apple loyalists.

No, it is because of this.

[Daydream]

You don't buy a "Google Android" device.  You buy a Samsung Android device, or a Motorola Android device, or a HTC Android device.

In other words choices. I can choose not to buy a Motorola Android because their bootloaders are locked. Or turn it the other way around, HTC announced end of March that they'll leave their bootloaders unlocked, Motorola moved towards the same idea end of April at least as far as announcements go. This is not the wholly grail of anything, because only enthusiasts (not the majority, but their number may be significant as in one can't ignore it) unlock their phones, but the point is there is a lever to make manufactures see the light so to speak. There is none with Apple.

I agree with the points on style, I like style too. But not at the expense of choice. Everything begins with choice. Neo said so.

[Grape Ape]

I love it when Appleite's get their dander up. Their so easy to get going, lol. Of course...nothing could ever be as good as an Apple product.

By the way, I own both and Android phone and an iPad, so you can diss either and I won't be offended.

[glynor]

In other words choices.

I do agree.  That IS the wonderful thing about the Android system.  I refused to buy an iPod for years and years (until they removed DRM from the iTunes Store) for these exact reasons, and the only reason I like the iOS products now is because they are still the only viable platform that I can count on.  Google just needs to fix it.  Rooting devices and installing flaky images from the "community" is awesome and fun for tinkerers, but those people have around the same "market force" as the people who use Linux on the desktop.  It's nice, but it is for like 103 people.*

Android is not Windows.  With Windows, you could buy a Dell with Windows 95, and then next year when Windows 98 came out, you could go out to Staples and buy a copy and bring it home and install it.  So long as your computer met the minimum hardware requirements, it would work.  And, perhaps more importantly, if you decided to buy a different computer instead from Gateway or HP, all of that software you bought for your Windows 95 machine would work without question.

I also reject, on general principles, that just because we saw the early PC market settle down into an incredibly-lopsided duopoly one time in the past, that the mobile phone OS market is destined to follow the same pattern.  It makes a nice story (Google = Microsoft, Apple = Apple, and Microsoft = OS/2 Warp, I guess), but it isn't based on evidence or even a serious reading of the current market conditions.

Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of hope that Android will ever truly be "fixed" in this regard, at least not anytime soon.  Google just doesn't care (they don't make their money from you, or from the handsets, but from ads), and the handset vendors have the opposite motivation financially.

* Obviously I'm exaggerating to make a point, but it is still an extremely low number of total users who would even consider doing this.

[glynor]

I love it when Appleite's get their dander up. Their so easy to get going, lol. Of course...nothing could ever be as good as an Apple product.

If you're referring to me, you have no idea what you're talking about.

[Matt]

I tuned in late.  Should I buy a Ford or Chevy truck?

[bob]

As for me, I use everything. One can admire an approach without being a fanboy.

[Daydream]

As for me, I use everything. One can admire an approach without being a fanboy.

Mixing is an abomination .

I believe Android invites people to be smarter about their choices. I can buy a phone that it is better than an iPhone or one that is worse than an iPhone. In other words one needs to know what he's buying and what can do with it. Needs to research; needs to not give in to impulses the likes of "if all my friends have it I can accept not being any better than them".
With Apple you don't need to know what your buying, because you're seeing it everywhere. I never understood this social pressure; maybe it was cool at the beginning but where the hell are we now? If I stop on any street in Manhattan and actually look around, what do I see? An army of people with the undifferentiated devices in their pockets/hands and the white wire going to their ears. All drones playing Apple's game. How can one be cool (if we think lifestyle) when everybody has the same thing? How can one do anything different/better (productivity or entertainment) when everybody can do the same thing? There is no edge anymore.

With Android I can research it and, money not an object (eh...), I can buy a different device, looking different, with different hardware, more capable, multiple times a year. Or more realistically, I have more choices when to buy the one device I really like (a Tegra2 phone, or a 4.5" screen phone or whatever). Not waiting for the magical Apple to come up with the magical date every year, for the magical new iteration. It irks me to no end.

[glynor]

As for me, I use everything. One can admire an approach without being a fanboy.

Same here.

The absolute best quote I've read on the whole "platform prediction" thing (the commonly repeated mantra that Android is Windows and Apple is Apple) is this from Horace Dediu, who was a market analyst for Nokia for years and years, by the way, and is a very smart guy when it comes to this stuff:

Given this knowledge, the pattern or trend that I see more than any other is that the future will be dramatically different than the past. This invalidates any forecast which assumes otherwise, including all those above.

[Grape Ape]

If you're referring to me, you have no idea what you're talking about.

I wasn't referring about anyone specifically. Appleites are everywhere. All you have to do is say something that doesn't shine an Apple product in the glory heavenly light that it deserves, and you'll ruffle a few feathers. Sorry if I ruffled yours.

It actually is quite remarkable that Apple has such a feverish following. I went for a family supper last month, and my 2 brother in-laws were in a heated debate because my one brother in law (who has just got an iphone) told my other brother in-law that his phone (Android) was inferior in every way. He actually left the table and went outside, the debate was so fierce (and ridiculous). I stayed out of it as I know better than to question an iPhone user.

[MrHaugen]

I hate apple products. The reason I do that is that it's locked to iTunes, and that you can't customize for shait on those units. I hate the feeling of Steve Jobs' sweaty palms around me. Even though it means faster updates and a bit more stream lined and just working piece of software. Yes, Android have a problem today. That is the cost of a more "open" software platform which manufacturers can tailor to their taste. I hope that this will be fixed in newer versions. What Android really need is to make their OS more polished and good looking out of the box, so all the manufacturer don't have to make all this more or less good UI's and apps on top.

And for the update part: Buy an upcoming HTC phone, and they will deliver updates fast to those phones. They have made some new rules to prevent all this waiting for customers. To bad that none of the HTC Phones can't compete with the Samsung Galaxy 2 yet though.

[dcwebman]

Thanks for the interesting discussion. I know I will be changing carriers in the Fall, and the Fall only because I'm going to decide if I'm going to upgrade from my 3GS to the iPhone 5. I abhor iTunes which is why I use it rarely but know I should use it more often especially because of backups. My girlfriend has a Droid she got in January and at first it was hmm, I could be convinced to switch. But with seeing some of the problems she's having and how well things work on the iOS and app store, it's making me second guess. We'll see what phones are around in the Fall.

[MagnaCartaHG]

To the person who said you buy "Samsung Android", "Motorola Android", or "HTC Android", you're so right. I have a Samsung/Verizon Android phone. Android is miles better than iOS, but if you buy the wrong phone, you may have a less than "ridiculously amazing" experience. But if you have Stock Android or you flash a ROM that takes the bloat out of your phone, you will experience Android as Google envisioned it, which is an infinitely customizable multi-tasking operating system where any app can interact with the features of any other app.

It's the perfect mash-up OS. Install Facebook, and now you can share anything from any app with people on Facebook. Same thing for Gmail, Skype, Read It Later, task management software like Remember the Milk, and whatever you can thing of. There are fundamental things about the way apps are allowed to multi-task and interact with each other that lets Android be useful in ways that even the developers of individual apps did not plan for. And Chrome/Fox to phone lets you do things like send PDFs from your browser to phone. I do it with my tablet anytime I encounter a document I may need offline at a later date.

Fragmentation is something people like to make a big fuss about, but Android 2.2 is virtually the same as Android 2.3. Android 2.1 to 2.2 contained key features like Apps to SD Card, and a faster Java Compiler that made noticeable differences, but the SDK differences between 2.2 and 2.3 are generally optimizations and support for specific things like gaming SDKs (note that the Playstation Phone runs stock Android 2.3). But many user experience things from Android 2.3, like the improved keyboard, run perfectly on Android 2.2 or 2.1. For many apps, if the user has Android 2.2, they can store the app on the SD card, but if they don't that's the only feature they miss, and while Apps2SD is nice, because it saves you space, you're probably running a 2MB app on a phone with GBs of internal storage. This counts as fragmentation, but it's not a big deal.

The real purpose of Apps2SD is for apps that are bigger than the internal storage of a typical phone, like say an Unreal Engine 3 FPS for Android Tablets. The point is, the Android SDK revisions are about pushing the limits of what's possible on a mobile device moreso than providing end-user functionality. On Android, that's a job left up to apps. On iOS where the core OS experience is written by Apple and only Apple, the OS revisions matter because they affect the end user. On Android, the apps that the end-user installs are allowed to change the core OS experience. Here are two iOS 5 examples:

1. Apple introduced a split-screen keyboard for ease of typing in landscape mode on tablets. On Android, a company called Swiftkey released an alternative keyboard for tablets with split screen functionality along with really advanced predictive text. This is simply not possible on iOS unless Apple chooses to release this.

2. Apple introduced a live lock-screen with notifications. On Android, you can install one of a number of different apps that let you customize your lock screen with the apps you want, the widgets you want, and really create the lock screen experience however you'd like it.

Both of these apps are backwards compatible to Android 2.1, because there are no specific restrictions preventing these things from running on older devices.

Bottom line iOS is an app-playing box. It lets you run apps, but Apple is the one that changes the OS.

Android is the OS you make it. It lets you run apps, but it's apps are allowed to change the OS.

If you read the press about Apple adding features to iOS that they ripped off apps they denied, you will find that the features they were blocking have been implemented by Android developers. Even when Google takes things out of the Android Market, there's nothing that says developers can't distribute their apps on their websites, on MediaFire, or on one of the many other app stores available.

Could you imagine if you couldn't just install whatever software you wanted on your computer?

As someone with an Android 1.6 mp3 player, an Android 2.2 phone, and an Android 3.1 tablet, all at different resolutions and by different manufactures using different CPUs, I can vouch that I run the same apps on all of them. It's very rare that I can't run an app on an older device. If an app can run the version of the OS, it can use all the sdk features, and unless an SDK feature is essential to the way an app runs, developers can gracefully omit that functionality or choose to not support it.

I actually just joined the forums for this rant, so I hope it helps.

 

[pcstockton]

I wont use Macs.
Love PCs (because I cant run MC, EAC, tag and rename, Foobar, dbpoweramp Batch Convertor, on a Mac.
ONLY use iPhone.
Apple hardware is sexy and generally works well.
I would NEVER buy another Mac.
Windows 7 isnt my favorite
MAC OS is deplorable to me.
My little Apple Bluetooth Keyboard is one of my favorite devices.
I owned a Google Phone and switched to AT&T and paid about $30 more a month just to have an iPhone
iTunes is the worst player.
iTunes works wonderfully for syncing my iPhone to MS Outlook (hilarious).
iTunes rips are not "proper"
iTunes can handle pre-emphasis like no other.
I love the power of right click.
I hate Android phones....

There is a place for, and drawbacks to, everything

[)p(]

I like the fact that my phone and tablet are locked down and just work. I love the customization the pc offers me but not for these kind of devices. I think apple will soon be a much smaller player behind android and winphone but I fully expect to stay with ios for years to come.

[MrC]

My dad is strong and better than your dad.

[bob]

My dad is strong and better than your dad.

Probably

[bob]

And onto the car scene...
http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/01/saab-shows-off-android-based-iqon-in-car-infotainment-system/

[MrC]

Beautiful commercial... but Saab seeing "the way forward!"  If they can even pay the bills to survive the next quarter will be remarkable in its own right.  What a mess.

[Mike Noe]

I tuned in late.  Should I buy a Ford or Chevy truck?

Land Rover, dude.  Land Rover.

[bob]

Beautiful commercial... but Saab seeing "the way forward!"  If they can even pay the bills to survive the next quarter will be remarkable in its own right.  What a mess.

Hey, I just put a set of lowering springs and new struts/shocks on my 14 year old Saab, it's awesome

[gvanbrunt]

I can add a bit of perspective on the iphone vs Android thing from someone who has used both. I've had 2 iphones, 1 ipod, 2 Samsung Android phones (Galaxy S and Nexus S) and have mac and a PC. I like Apple, but I HATE being locked into using all their software for everything that I do. Using iTunes to sync my phone is joke. The fact that I have to jailbreak my phone to get it to do what I want is a further annoyance... The fact is, if I want simple and hastle free, Apple is the way to go. If I want to do it "my way" I'll have to stick to Android devices.

Glynor is correct that fragmentation is the biggest issue Google has. Every phone has to have it's own software and you are stuck waiting for the manufacturer to release OS updates, which they won't do for very long after a phone is released. You can buy a Nexus phone, and at least it will get updates for a very long time directly from Google.

They have acknowledged the issue, and phone vendors including Samsung are working on a solution, but I've seen nothing concrete yet. What has to happen is that the main OS needs to be seperated from the drivers, so a Manufacturer can just give drivers to Google and they can release whatever OS they want directly to consumers. There is a big push from consumers for this, and I'm sure we'll see it happen in the next couple of years. Till then neither "side" is perfect and you have to buy a less then perfect solution depending on what matters more to you: choice or less hastles.

[steveklein]

I wont use Macs.
Love PCs (because I cant run MC, EAC, tag and rename, Foobar, dbpoweramp Batch Convertor, on a Mac.
ONLY use iPhone.
Apple hardware is sexy and generally works well.
I would NEVER buy another Mac.
Windows 7 isnt my favorite
MAC OS is deplorable to me.
My little Apple Bluetooth Keyboard is one of my favorite devices.
I owned a Google Phone and switched to AT&T and paid about $30 more a month just to have an iPhone
iTunes is the worst player.
iTunes works wonderfully for syncing my iPhone to MS Outlook (hilarious).
iTunes rips are not "proper"
iTunes can handle pre-emphasis like no other.
I love the power of right click.
I hate Android phones....

There is a place for, and drawbacks to, everything

my technology twin. love pc's, love my iphone, hate that my iphone is tied so closely to itunes, but still prefer that than any other device.

[shAf]

If I stop on any street in Manhattan and actually look around, what do I see? An army of people with the undifferentiated devices in their pockets/hands and the white wire going to their ears. All drones playing Apple's game. ...

...as if we're a listening to the same thing?!  Isn't it easier to imagine we each go our own direction for our own reasons?  For me it was a choice for the sake of music and the camera, which (IMHO) are not 2 reasons why most choose Android or Android hardware ...

[gvanbrunt]

Oh yeah, my other main reason for Android: flac support. Important to me as an audiophile.

[Daydream]

...as if we're a listening to the same thing?!  Isn't it easier to imagine we each go our own direction for our own reasons?  For me it was a choice for the sake of music and the camera, which (IMHO) are not 2 reasons why most choose Android or Android hardware ...

Not towards you shAf, but in general:

No. As you're listening to whatever music (everybody for their own), in the same way. It was a high-impact image, one that I would not like to be associated with in any given way. I dig style, occasionally I do follow trends. But I try it to make them mine. With an iWhatever you can't do that. You're getting the music the same way as the rest of them, you're listening to it same way as everybody. Maybe this "group" was something to be proud to be in, at the beginning, when the iPod came out, the first iTouch, the first iPhone. That edge is gone, there is no edge. There are only people that can't make the effort to look outside the bubble, happy to wear the white wire, in-waiting for the (unremoveable, no opt-out) app that would allow Jobs to whisper in your brain 24/7 "Buy, buy more!". Slaves to a consumerism that has been labeled "cool", locked into a business ecosystem meant to create a financial empire and kill your imagination.

Every now and then they come out and throw you new bone - retina display, a "better" camera, whatever floats your boat, whatever reason makes you feel special for getting it. You are not, 'cause there's another 100 millions like you that do the same thing.

[dcwebman]

Now to another item which is a MC question too. How about webOS? The videos I've seen so far make it look very promising and it will at least be one true OS from one manufacturer so there won't be the Android problems. Will users who get a webOS phone/tablet have to use MC on it like they do with the iPhone?

[glynor]

Now to another item which is a MC question too. How about webOS?

WebOS the software has always looked and been very promising.  Unfortunately, the hardware to date has been very lackluster.  Some of that problem is execution certainly... For example, why do they continually insist on bringing out these "miniature phones" that no one wants?  They seem to be convinced that the iPhone or existing Android smartphones are too big.  While I, personally, feel like the phones with screens larger than 4" are "too big", there are lots of other options for Android, and I've never heard anyone complain that a modern 3.5-4" screen sized phone is "too big".  Certainly not enough to warrant giving up all kinds of functionality by going with something like the Veer, anyway.

It just seems like they see the 70% of the market that doesn't yet have smartphones, and they think: these people don't like the current smartphones because they're too big.  That might be true of like 13 people, but for most people, it's the required data plans, stupid.  My mom loves to use my iPhone, and my dad's (paid for by his company), but she's not going to get one of her own (even if she'd like it in the end) because she can't justify the additional $25 per month for the data plan.  She only barely justifies the payment for the voice plan she has!  I really don't understand what they're going for with these devices.

And, unfortunately, the hardware problems don't end with device design aesthetic.  The previous WebOS devices we had implemented at our company were a miserable failure, almost exclusively due to hardware problems.  The failure rate on the first and second generation Pre phones was near 100% for us.  Many users are on their third or fourth device, and I don't think there is a single one left with an original handset not repaired/replaced under warranty.  And, it isn't just us, this matches what I've read about their hardware online.  It doesn't take long with hardware failures before people just give up on the platform, and I think to a large degree, that ship may have already sailed.

There is also a serious problem with performance.  The OS itself is very slick, and generally performs pretty well (previously shipping devices haven't been great compared to iOS devices, but comparable to Android in most cases, and "pretty good").  Unfortunately, the fact that there is no real native API that lets you code "to the metal" on the devices, badly impacts the performance of third-party applications.  They just all feel like web apps, and perform like web apps on badly underpowered hardware, because that's what they are.  (Yes, I know, there is now a game-focused API available, finally, that is closer to the metal, but it isn't used by essentially anyone but a handful of games.)  Android suffers from this problem a bit as well, but they've at least covered it up with some real polish, and the Java framework for Android is far-cry from JavaScript and HTML.

So, I guess I'm of a hopeful, but pessimistic, opinion on WebOS.  Generally, I think Windows Phone has a MUCH better shot of becoming a viable 3rd "major, modern" mobile operating system, especially with Nokia's beautiful hardware design chops coming online...

[shAf]

For those who think the world is moving toward Apple, here's a disappointing report.

Not that I'm ever happy to see anyone eat a bit of crow, but it does go to show that you can actually count on very little in this PDA market ...

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1189678

[fitbrit]

It happens with Apple, too.  One of my daughters is on her fifth iPhone.  Cracked the glass, dropped it in the river, left it somewhere, and so on.  It's an inherited trait.

I still wish I could drop my iPhone in the JRiver (software)!

[flac.rules]

Not that I'm ever happy to see anyone eat a bit of crow, but it does go to show that you can actually count on very little in this PDA market ...

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1189678

Maybe, will see how comperable the "whats the next phone you want to buy" among early adopters is to real sales numbers. Will be interesting to see.

[JimH]

Not that I'm ever happy to see anyone eat a bit of crow, but it does go to show that you can actually count on very little in this PDA market ...

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1189678

This might explain it:

"...  4,000 professional and early-adopter smartphone users, primarily focused on the North American market ..."

Or this.  My daughter wrote today to say she had taken her iphone for a swim.

"... I was so excited to jump in the lake after running yesterday, that I forgot I had my phone on me and it is now probably out of commission ..."

I think it was her fifth iphone. 

[Mr ChriZ]

This might explain it:

"...  4,000 professional and early-adopter smartphone users, primarily focused on the North American market ..."

Or this.  My daughter wrote today to say she had taken her iphone for a swim.

"... I was so excited to jump in the lake after running yesterday, that I forgot I had my phone on me and it is now probably out of commission ..."

I think it was her fifth iphone.  

My main phone is now a Samsung GTE-1170 version 1.  I highly recommend it for your daughter.  It's surprisingly resilient, the battery life is incredible - circa a week and a half.  It has a game -> "Super Jewel Quest" which I've played for hours.  It also has 'Apps' which include a calculator.  As yet I've not managed to get it connected to the internet or find a web browser but I'm sure it's there somewhere.

When I'm down the pub my mates talk about problems with their IPhones and HTC's.  I bring out the Samsung GTE-1170 version 1 and show them how good it is.  Not everyone believes me saying it's a bit retro but then I show them Super Jewel Quest and they sit in awe of the amazing graphics and 8bit colour screen.
All this cost me £5 which OK I'll admit is a little pricey but you've got to remember the British pound doesn't go as far as it used too and that this is a Samsung GTE-1170 version 1 and you have to pay money for quality like that.

[glynor]

I think it was her fifth iphone.  

I don't know, Jim....  Surviving a fall out of an airplane is pretty darn good.