Instead of simple, expert
First time user (recommended settings)
Returning user.
MC already makes that distinction. If it has been previously installed and configured, any new installation uses those settings.
We have a lot of cases to consider:
New, completely fresh user.
Old user, new installation, new machine.
Old or new user, new update install.
Old or new user, new upgrade install.
Any user who uninstalls, then reinstalls.
They all have to work well.
A couple of comments were made above that I don't quite agree with.
Everyone considers themselves an expert. It isn't the case, based on e-mail we get from users who didn't buy or are uninstalling. "Too complex", "more than I needed", "confusing", etc.
And "people "get" that skipping a wizard means things won't be pre-configured". I don't think you can assume that.
So, this is more complicated than it looks. What we have now works well in most cases. Any given user, expert or beginner, might want something different, but we don't know which they are when MC is installed.
I don't want to add a lot of complexity in the beginning and then find out that it works less well. We need to be careful.