Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[davewave]

I think Kamala will be nominated with virtually no opposition in the party.  And I think she has a decent shot of winning.

[Skerik]

Harris already has secured a majority of the delegates. Clearly the Dem party coalesced around Harris within 24 hours, which indicates the pump was primed in all likelihood. The funds that were bottled up flowed almost immediately along with public support. It's hard to imagine a truly open DNC given today - Harris just has to solidify a VP pick soon.

They seemed to start right off to try flipping the age issue around on Trump but despite his various gaffs and so on, there's no chance it sticks - he's got better Teflon than Reagan did.

I did see an image going around already which made me chuckle, of a $5K donation to Harris from Trump in 2011 for her AG campaign. (Which she apparently didn't keep.)

[KingSparta]

I am getting rid of my Yugo

taking its place is A New 2025 Honda Civic Top of the line Trim, Fully loaded

This will be my last car.

I requested this car from Honda and kept tabs on it being built in Japan, including the ride here to the States. I just got it yesterday. The dealer had it for a week fitting all the addons to the car.

[astromo]

3 months of of silence but no shortage of roller coaster action out there.

I'm guessing there'll be some serious noise in less than 2 days time, even though a final call may take some time after that.

All these poll results being quoted.

My guess is that the people in the political middle from the states that are hanging in the balance will be weary of being asked to offer their opinions to a pollster -just a guess. Assuming that's the case, then even if the polls weren't close they still wouldn't be worth a cracker.

Bring on the result .. please.

[jmone]

The screen writers for this show have been terrific.  Once of the best TV Series.  All sorts of villains, heros, sub plots, twists and turns.  The audience looks really engaged.  I for one will be watching the season finale.  I'm also guessing there will be additional bonus episodes after today. 

[davewave]

The twist at the end is for one candidate to see how many people one can offend and still potentially win?

[jmone]

It think it goes from Game of Thrones to Judge Judy!

[jmone]

Looks like no bonus episodes.

It seems that team "red" will win everything at this stage: Electoral College, Popular Vote, Senate, House(?).  I did not see that coming.
- Congratulations to team red:  Well done.  I truly hope you can unite your country and govern for all, as the "other" side are your fellow citizens and more unites you than divides you.  Have a great term and I wish you well. 
- Commiserations to team blue:  I know it hurts, but you will bounce back stronger for next time.  While it will be hard, I hope you support your new Government as they (and their supporters) are your fellow citizens and more unites you than divides you. 

As in all elections in the US, democracy is the winner & there will be another shot at contesting the title in 4 years.  Something you cannot say in many countries around the world.

[zybex]

They can now adopt this new hat.

[Awesome Donkey]

To be perfectly honest it basically went as I thought it would, unfortunately. I knew she practically didn't have a chance and a big part of it, I believe, is that there's a good number of people out there who don't want/aren't ready for a woman to be president, plain and simple. Maybe in a generation or two... unless we end up fully destroying the planet by then, which could happen.

[marko]

I knew she practically didn't have a chance and a big part of it, I believe, is that there's a good number of people out there who don't want/aren't ready for a woman to be president, plain and simple.

I said these exact words to my wife last night. I long to be proved wrong, but I see no positives in this outcome, none at all.

[syndromeofadown]

I visited the USA on the weekend. The first time in many years.

We were not eager to visit because the border crossings were always weird if we got a young person. They appeared a bit mental, but the older aged border guards were always super nice. My wife is French so she had to do iris scans, palm scans, face scan, pay fees, and do a bunch of paper work. Then we were banned for a while for being purebloods. The wife has a Canadian passport now, and it appears we are no longer second class citizens, so we went for a visit.

The border guard, who was young, was very nice and pleasant. We went to Haines. Everyone we met there, local or visiting, was very nice. It was a very enjoyable trip albeit very expensive. Inflation there is insane. Everything was twice the price of Canada which has had everything at least double in price in the last 4 years. It was also concerning that almost all businesses were closed. It is not tourist season so things should be closed, but almost everything had a For Sale sign on it.

Because everything was closed, and the Brewery, Meadery, and Distillery close very early, we ended up watching some American Television. My God. We got the full insanity of your media, and experienced it pre-election.

From an outsider looking in, and by the election results, it appears that the majority of Americans are unhappy with the current administration. Why could this be?

I would think inflation, immigration, lock downs and mandates, Ukraine spending, cognitive abilities and the hiding of these abilities, election integrity, sanctions that only hurt Americans, Afghanistan evacuation, “Russian interference”, the “insurrection”, the summer of love, de dollarisation, war on food and farming, skipping primaries, Peanut the squirrel, lawfare against political opponents, a certain laptop, DEI in everything including high level politicians and judges, censorship, taxes, net zero. Just to name a few.

Is life better now than in 2016-2020? Perhaps for some, life is not better, and they think life will be better under Trump. This does not make them low IQ, racist, misogynist, or members of the socialist party of Germany in the first half of the century.

The left’s campaign appeared to be focused almost entirely on identity. Vote for a woman, vote for a person of colour, abortions for all, abortions, diddy list celebrity endorsements, abortions, joy, abortions, anyone but trump. Fine whatever, but perhaps people not interested in the genitalia and skin colour of their leaders are tired of being called Nazis. Maybe calling people Nazis over and over dehumanizes them and can lead to unhinged people turning to violence to stop these "Nazis".

I would be more worried about who has bailed Trump out in the past. Surely, he is owned by them / him. What are his connections to big tech? I’m looking at you Mike Pence. What are his connections with Musk the snake in the grass who is trying to turn twitter into WeChat social credit app. What will happen when your dollar fails? Maybe there will be a WeChat like app to take over.

There are lots of reasons to vote for someone. In your Coke Pepsi elections people can only pick what they perceive to be the lesser of 2 evils, or the person that will make their life better. Life has sucked pretty badly for a lot of people for the last 4 years, it makes sense to me that they want a change. I hope people can tolerate this idea, as there has been a lot of intolerance over the last 4 years.

[bob]

The total votes that Trump won by in MI, WI and PA COMBINED were 120k. 100k in MI alone choose uncommitted in the primary because of Gaza. One in five said they were factoring that into whether or not to vote. 80% of dems support a ceasefire but Harris choose to double down on Gaza, sent clowns like Bill Clinton and Richie Torres to scold Arabs and Muslims in MI and run with neocons like Liz Cheney. Embracing the Cheney's always had a 0% chance of working.

Note that Harris ran a distant 3rd in Dearborn MI which pre-Gaza Biden won with 80%

Choosing to ignore economic issues also cost the dems. Harris got crushed in Missouri which voted for BOTH a minimum wage increase and abortion rights.
Of course Harris couldn't run on the minimum wage increase (which Biden ran on and didn't deliver) because her Wall Street donor class didn't want it.

With a turnout of 17 million less than the last election it's surprising that it was even that close.

[astromo]

Well, at least the numbers align the popular and electoral college vote. So, as they say in politics, "Congratulations to the winner".

Plus, those voting for Trump should have no illusions what sort of person they voted for thanks to experience. With the likely situation that the house will stay in Republican hands, the next two years will see how much of the various "concepts of a plan" will be implemented and what effect they will have in reality. The time for guessing and prediction will be over. If the hip pocket voting that has helped determine the outcome proves reliable, then the US will end up in a better place in dollar terms at least. I'm not convinced because it's unclear how much of what Trump has said on the election trail will actually come to pass. So, as noted before, nothing beats an empirical test.

[jmone]

I lean toward "Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs" in how a person will vote:
- When the economy is going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the higher level issues (Self-Actualization, Self-Esteem, Love and Belonging)
- When the economy is not going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the lower level issues (Safety and Security, Physiological Needs)

I think (this time around) more voters were concerned about the lower level issues and hence the swing.

[jmone]

I also like this heat map (it is incomplete as counting is not reached 95%+ in all counties, but you get the idea).  There are some clusters where Blue gained, but it really is a pretty even swing to Red.

[astromo]

I lean toward "Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs" in how a person will vote:
- When the economy is going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the higher level issues (Self-Actualization, Self-Esteem, Love and Belonging)
- When the economy is not going "great", a voter will tend to focus on the lower level issues (Safety and Security, Physiological Needs)

I think (this time around) more voters were concerned about the lower level issues and hence the swing.

Spot on.

What I find astounding is that according to reporting in the Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/17/americas-economy-is-bigger-and-better-than-ever

Over the past three decades America has left the rest of the rich world in the dust. In 1990 it accounted for about two-fifths of the gdp of the g7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now about 30% higher than in western Europe and Canada, and 60% higher than in Japan—gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi may be America’s poorest state, but its hard-working residents earn, on average, more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. Lately, China too has gone backwards. Having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic, its nominal gdp has slipped from about three-quarters of America’s in 2021 to two-thirds today.

The US is doing better than the rest of the world by a long chalk. However if that economic reality isn't felt by people who are just trying to make it through each week, then all that helicopter view economic analysis just won't cut through unless the political messaging stacks up in a way that makes sense.

Trump's messaging obviously worked best.

[jmone]

Going to an election focusing on higher order needs when an increasing number of the voting population are feeling lower order issues is not a great strategy.

...but, it works both ways. 

Here in Australia (many elections ago), a consecutive conservative gvt lost the following election.... because the economic situation was not good for most people.  Maslow postulates that once a level has been achieved it is no longer a motivator and as you strive for things in the next levels.  In this case in Australia, the conservative party lost as they were campaigning on "look how well we have done, and will continue to do" forgetting that people now already felt that this level had been satiated... and the alternative party campaigned on higher order needs.  They won big time, with even the PM losing his seat. 

It's a lesson that both sides never seem to learn (anywhere in the world). 
- "It's about the economy stupid" appeals when most voters feel insecure about their lower-level needs. 
- "It's about the great good stupid" appeals when most voters feel secure about their lower-level needs. 

We also have to keep in mind this is about an individual's personal motivation.  I can understand why (say celebrities) that endorsed team Blue are shocked and outraged that team Red won.  They are far higher up (and lower in #) of those that swung red.  It does not make those that went team red "stupid".  They just have a different set of motivations at that particular time. 

[astromo]

Cicero is quoted to have said:

We learn nothing from history except that we learn nothing from history.

There's no qualification of whether that history is ancient or modern. Even though that pearl of wisdom dates back over 2 millennia, my view is that it is still valid today.

Recent history globally, given the numerous elections over the past year or so in different parts of the world, has shown that incumbent governments are being blamed for the pain of inflation (regardless of whether that blame is justified or not). Bear in mind that there's a qualifier that the election is fair.

As you correctly point out, the phenomenon is not new and the correlations are strong. So, not taking stock of these influences and sending the wrong message is a recipe for a change of government.

[jmone]

The one that wins the middle wins.  There are not enough votes at the extremes. 

[JimH]

I'm trying to find some peace about the situation we're in.  Not reading the news is helping.

To your point about incumbency, a lot of people are unhappy with governments that have become more and more invasive.  And corrupt.  So they tend to vote incumbents out.  From memory, our Presidents have alternated between Republican and Democratic for a while.

There are now seven billion people on the planet and only a few thousand tigers and elephants.  Songbirds are decreasing because of loss of habitat.  Damage to the ocean.

Too many people are competing for too few resources.  Water even.

Resources are in the hands of the privileged few.  These few have free rein in influencing elections.  Musk bought votes and nobody stopped him.

Governments fail to solve basic problems because it's not in their self-interest.

When Gaza and Lebanon descend into chaos, it's no great surprise.  Not enough land.  Too many people.  Tribal hatred.

See why I've sworn off the news?

Going back to my recliner now.  I'll be 80 in a month.  I need to find my teeth so I can keep my strength up.

[jmone]

Since we are taking a global view.  It is the simply the best of times, and our children will live in even better times.  I mean that seriously. 

You would rather be living now than at any other time in the history of humanity.

Sure there are issues, but humans are fantastic at finding solutions, and it is relentless.  Life is better now for the average human than it has ever been and is trending to an even brighter future (I've tried to include both the Global and USA trend lines as a comparison).  I was going to add Minnestoa to the charts but it sounds all doom and gloom.    JimH needs to get out in the sunshine, or simply stop reading whatever "news" source is feeding the negativity as it is simply not factual. 

Basic Needs : These trends are fantastic over time
- Life Expectancy at Birth (but you can see the impact of Covid-19) - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Child Mortality Rates - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?time=earliest..latest&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Share of Population Living in Extreme Poverty - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-population-in-extreme-poverty?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- GDP per Capita - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Literacy Rate - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates?country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Share of the Population with Access to Electricity - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-the-population-with-access-to-electricity?tab=chart&country=USA~OWID_WRL

Higher Order Needs : These are some of the more popular topics being debated, and many of them show a less well defined trend, ones that move up and down, or even regresses.
- Income Inequality - https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/inequality?tab=chart&time=1820..latest&Data=World+Inequality+Database+%28Incomes+before+tax%29&Indicator=Gini+coefficient&country=USA~OWID_WRL
- Per capita CO2 Emissions - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?tab=chart&country=USA~OWID_WRL
- Political Civil Liberties Index - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-civil-liberties-index?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Human Rights Index - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/human-rights-index-vdem?tab=chart&country=OWID_WRL~USA
- Social Rights for Women - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-countries-with-key-economic-and-social-rights-for-women
- LGBT+ Rights - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-protecting-core-lgbt-rights

[jmone]

I'm also going to tackle the myth of finite resources.

- Quantitatively a resource is finite
- Economically they are infinite. 

Let's take Oil as an example.  It's been peddled for most of my life that we are about to "run out", yet we never do... and we never will.  There is very simple economic reason we will never run out:
- As oil gets more scarce the price rises.
- As the price rises, it makes previously uneconomic reserves economically viable
- As the price rises, substitution takes place as other alternatives become more economically viable (solar, wind, nuclear, bio-fuel, whatever).

Same with Water.  We will never "run out".  It might get more expensive to get the quantity we need in the location we want, but we will not "run out".  The stuff is even trivial to "make", or "desalinate" but both are far more expensive than digging a hole and letting it fill up with rain. 

[JimH]

Myth.  Ha!

Apply your logic to songbirds who need certain habitat to survive.  Will evolution save them?  Sure, but it's going to dump humans along the way.

Water?  You must know about all the crap in our water.  Microplastics, anyone?

[JimH]

Since we are taking a global view.  It is the simply the best of times, and our children will live in even better times.  I mean that seriously. 

My kids can't afford a house.  They start in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.  The only way for them to do it is to get someone else's help.

My first house was $13,000.  Then there were a couple in the $20,000's.  I was earning $10/hour doing construction.  The math worked then.  Now you need to be upper middle class, at least.

Still lookinng for my teeth.

[JimH]

Income Distribution

1% of the world's population owns 50% of the wealth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth#:~:text=half%20of%20the%20world's%20net,97%25%20of%20the%20total%20wealth.

Take a look at a book called The Working Poor.  This describes the lives of people who are not unemployed.  They have jobs, but they are so close to poverty that small events like a car breaking down can put them over the edge.  I've seen this first hand.

You can't use statistics to talk about quality of life.

[zybex]

I, for one, welcome our imminent AI overlords. Maybe that will fix things.
Ref: Neal Asher's Polity.

[Awesome Donkey]

Microplastics, anyone?

This. I've been reading about how the oceans are full of them and literal islands of pollution that exist just under the surface of the water. And about how oxygen levels are decreasing in places and fish literally can drown from it.

The decline of the oceans is probably the most immediate issue that if left unchecked (or ignored which is mostly happening) bad things can (and will) happen to the human race. It seems like it's largely being ignored by officials... I guess if they don't mention it it'll magically go away? Disclaimer: it won't.

Regarding the comment about living in any other time, personally if a time machine existed I would happily go back to a different time like the 1950s when there was a boom happening and the environment wasn't that bad yet. But alas, no such thing and here we are living on a spinning plate on a stick that's beginning to teeter.

[Awesome Donkey]

I, for one, welcome our imminent AI overlords. Maybe that will fix things.

Yes, with the HKs and T-1000s.

[zybex]

On a more serious note, I kind of agree with Jmone - the world as a whole has never been better. It's just that this time around we have the capability of ending it all in a blink on an eye. Saying that 90% of the population lives better now than 500 years ago doesn't really change the fact that those 90% are getting a rotten deal compared to the other 10%, even if the inequality chart shows it's improving. In the past, when people were desperate they would lead a local revolution and cause some deaths; Nowadays, they can effectively cause a global war leading to global destruction. We are on the brink, in some ways.

[zybex]

The planet is doing great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmo8sh77G6Y&t=169s

[jmone]

They are in the glass of water by your rocker.

- Of course there are issues, and housing affordability can be one of them pending where you live in the world (it's an even worse issue in Australia than the US).
- I made no comment (or have any factual insight) about song birds, tigers, elephants or the issues around bio diversity in general.  I simply don't know enough on the subject to make a comment, so I did not.
- Your earlier comments was on water (and resource) scarcity.  When the microplastics issue in drinking water gets enough traction, then it will be solved (it's technically trivial to do, but adds costs).

Is life better for your kids than it is for you?  I can only hope so, but I'd be guessing.

Is it better for the average global human.  Yes.  Without a doubt. 

[JimH]

Better for us doesn't mean better for the planet.

I mentioned tigers above.  Here's a list of carnivores:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_carnivorans_by_population

Think about it.  7 billion people, a few thousand of many of these animals.

This isn't about how good is Netflix or how fast is your car.  If we screw this up, it's the planet at risk.  If we lose enough pollinators, we don't eat.

[jmone]

Income Distribution

One of the links I posted was to the time scale for Income Inequality (Gini Index) that shows how it has changed over time.  It is showing that while it has been recently increasing in the US and decreasing world, the US is still better than the world average.

You can't use statistics to talk about quality of life.

Sure you can. 
- Here is one example (Australia wins in this one!) - https://www.worlddata.info/quality-of-life.php
- You can even look up Minnesota (or other localities) on this OECD model - https://www.oecdregionalwellbeing.org/US27.html

What you can't do is take that data and apply it to how an individual feels about their quality of life.  A well off man, running his own business in a great part of the world may still be unhappy.  The opposite can also be true. 

[jmone]

The planet is doing great:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kmo8sh77G6Y&t=169s

That's actually pretty good!

[jmone]

7 billion people

Probably will not help your mood, but we are almost 8.2 Billion now.  India has also taken over as the largest population.  Growth is slowing and is expected to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086 then start declining. 

https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time

[jmone]

...I would happily go back to a different time like the 1950s when there was a boom happening .....

Sounds great!  Well, as long as you were a Straight White Male, Christian, preferably Republican, not drafted for the Korean war, and had just built your fancy new Nuclear Fallout Shelter stocked with the FCDA's recommended seven-day supply of food and water. 

[JimH]

Probably will not help your mood, but we are almost 8.2 Billion now.

What.  My mood is the problem now?  I never said I wasn't grumpy.

[jmone]

I just figured you'd like 8.2 less than 7. 

[astromo]

You can't use statistics to talk about quality of life.

I'd say that you can but if it's a political situation, it won't land with the majority out there - maybe because there's not enough time to parse the data, not enough understanding to make sense of it or it simply doesn't help pay the bill that the debt collector at the door is demanding cash for.

Useful piece interviewing Jonathan Swan - remember those internet memes from the interview with DJT that he did mid-Covid when he worked for Axios? Yep that guy with the Aussie accent and the RM Williams boots:
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/global-roaming/global-roaming-jonathan-swan-trump/104453264

From what I've taken in over the last few days, he provides the clearest description of how the GOP machine delivered the result. Doesn't change anything but I'm the sort of person who likes to understand, "How the hell did that happen?"

[zybex]

...I would happily go back to a different time like the 1950s when there was a boom happening...

Sounds great!  Well, as long as you were a Straight White Male, Christian, preferably Republican, not drafted for the Korean war, and had just built your fancy new Nuclear Fallout Shelter stocked with the FCDA's recommended seven-day supply of food and water.

This reminds me of "Starry Messenger" by Neil deGrasse Tyson. Here's a quote:

"Whether or not day-to-day feels this way, civilization has made great social advances over the decades and centuries. Progressive changes in laws, legislation, and attitudes around the world have, in some areas, brought the diversity of race and gender to social levels that approximate Martin Luther King Jr.'s famous line from his 1963 “I Have a Dream” speech:

    "I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."

One last thought experiment bears this truth. Imagine you're offered the opportunity to enter a time machine and go back to any previous moment in human history. Where and when would you choose? The White, cisgender, heterosexual male has his pick of the timeline—this traveler to the past will be welcomed everywhere and everywhen. If that's not you, then you'd better think hard about the time and place you'd like to arrive. Are you female, a person of color, disabled, queer, or any combination of these? When was it better for you? A thousand years ago? Five hundred? A hundred? Fifty years ago? Ten? Five? For me, I'm good with the present. I'd rather not be declined a taxi ride, overlooked for job opportunities, denied a bank loan, or redlined from my choice of housing. With childhood ambitions of being a scientist, I don't want to be someone's servant, nor do I fancy being purchased and owned by another human being who thinks I'm not entirely human."

[jmone]

MLK Jr. really nailed it.  One of the greatest lines in history.

This reminds me of "Starry Messenger" by Neil deGrasse Tyson. Here's a quote:
.....
The White, cisgender, heterosexual male has his pick of the timeline—this traveler to the past will be welcomed everywhere and everywhen.[/i]
....

Mmmm, I get his msg but it is not correct.  I'd suggest he would risk being slaughtered or enslaved if he appeared in many of the great past civilizations - Myans, Mongol, Caliphates, etc... basically anywhere with a homogenous population would be a big risk.  TBH, you would probably still get slaughtered or enslaved under the Romans.  Could you even conjugate a verb in Latin?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lczHvB3Y9s  Brian could not !