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[JimH]

I've been following the Covid-19 epidemic pretty closely.  Among other reasons, I'm in the bullseye demographic. 

I heard this on NPR Here and Now today and this woman, Laurie Garrett, is extremely articulate and compelling.  Well worth a listen.


I personally think we're in for some very rough times, both health-wise and economically.  Laurie Garrett lays it out well.

She's a journalist and the author of a 1994 book on pandemics.

WARNING:  She's not a MAGA person. 

[Scobie]

Lays out current state and challenges very well. Without a dramatic change in mindset things in the U.S will get far worse before they get better. It makes a vaccine all the more crucial because people cannot be relied upon to do the right thing, whether "leaders" or followers.

Stay safe everyone.

[DJLegba]

There’s no other country in the world that has as chaotic a response this response as we. You have one policy, one place, one policy, another.

I wonder if she's heard of that far-away place called Canada, where every province has its own public health policy. Canadians agree this makes a lot of sense, as some provinces have incredibly low infection rates and don't need to keep people locked down and frightened.

Lockdowns were implemented to "flatten the curve" so the health care system would not get overwhelmed. In much of Canada hospitals are far quieter now than they were before the lockdown, which is actually a negative consequence. If you've studied any math (and anyone who talks about a "loss of negative 8.5 percent" clearly has not) you'll understand that the area under the curve remains the same when you make it flatter but longer. In other words, the same number of people will get sick and die, but they won't all get sick at the same time. We can't all hide in our houses or apartments until someone comes up with a vaccine, and if we try to there will be mental and physical health consequences unrelated to the corona virus. Already in British Columbia there have been more additional deaths from opioid overdoses than from COVID-19.

[Zootsuit]

I haven't had a chance to hear the report - my audio playback isn't working - but a couple of thoughts.

I don't think any responsible person is suggesting that the lock-downs continue indefinitely, and I say that being in an endangered cohort, as Jim is. We know that won't work forever, and even if it did, the economic repercussions will be disastrous and politically unacceptable. But that's not the only point. This has become binary choice - stay home, or go out and behave the way you were acting on January 1st.

Setting aside the issues surrounding the original crisis response, there are practical steps we can take as we emerge from the cocoon. First, masks. Wearing masks has become politicized beyond belief, but there are strong indications that masks protect the wearer in some measure, and also protect those who come in contact with the wearer. For some people, not wearing a mask has somehow become the rough equivalent of flying the flag. That's BS.

That leads to the next point, which is social distancing. People are ignoring it. Take a look at the line of folks waiting to enter a NASCAR event in North Carolina, where some tracks are operating under relaxation of the lock-down. There isn't 6 feet between the front of the line and the back. Beach scenes - people are back invading one another's space.

Americans have an independent streak that works wonders in many respects, but here, where there is a clear public health mandate, they won't comply. That means when I go out, wearing a mask, I'm constantly encountering unmasked people who flaunt their independence by invading my space, and staying there, which enhances risk. When they say 'I have a right [to do so-and-so]'. you want to send them back to read John Stuart Mill (or Oliver Wendell Holmes, if you prefer) and tell them it ends where my nose begins. All freedom in a modern society needs some limit. I'm not sure where you come down on that.

(The Canadian comparison is useful but limited. Culturally, Canadians seem much more willing than Americans to comply with governmental mandates, although that varies from province to province.)

So, I take your broader point that we must curtail the economic damage and accept some measure of risk, but for me at least, the real issue is that many people treat an elimination or curtailing of the isolation as a 'get out of jail' card that allows them to keep flaunting public health mandates when compliance costs them nothing except the ability to say 'I do what I want, not what I'm told to do'..

If you haven't already read it, you might enjoy 'The Great Influenza' by John Barry. It was written before the current pandemic, but it could have as well been written yesterday, that's how prescient his writing is.