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[JimH]

I have a few friends who think that people are over-reacting.

I looked up the mortality rate of flu.  It's about 0.13% in recent years.  Covid-19 is about 3.5%.  That means that you're about 25 times more likely to die from Covid-19 if you get it.

Covid-19 is also about twice as contagious.  People who have the flu, on average, infect 1.3 other people.  With Covid-19, people infect 2.2 others.

Examples of what this means.

With the Flu:

1.  Patient 1 infects 1.3 others
2.  Second generation 1.7
3.  Third generation 2.2
4.  Fourth 2.8
5.  Fifth  3.7

With Covid-19:

1.  The first patient infects  2.2
2.  They infect 4.8
3.  They infect 10.6
4.  They infect 23.4
5.  They infect 51.5

Almost 14 times more people are infected by the fifth generation of Covid-19.

By the 10th generation, the difference is something like 200x.

[MagerClab]

I have a few friends who think that people are over-reacting.

I looked up the mortality rate of flu.  It's about 0.13% in recent years.  Covid-19 is about 3.5%.  That means that you're about 25 times more likely to die from Covid-19. 

Covid-19 is also about twice as contagious.  People who have the flu, on average, infect 1.3 other people.  With Covid-19, people infect 2.2 others.

Examples of what this means.

With the Flu:

1.  Patient 1 infects 1.3 others
2.  Second generation 1.7
3.  Third generation 2.2
4.  Fourth 2.8
5.  Fifth  3.7

With Covid-19:

1.  The first patient infects  2.2
2.  They infect 4.8
3.  They infect 10.6
4.  They infect 23.4
5.  They infect 51.5

Almost 14 times more people are infected by the fifth generation of Covid-19.

By the 10th generation, the difference is something like 200x.

@all: covid19 FOR SURE isn't like the flu. Look at (us in) Europe. NO Government would do the VERY DRASTIC measures going on right now if there weren't SERIOUS concerns about public health WORLDWIDE. This is NOT a local conflict, this is NOT national, or continental.
It's A VERY SERIOUS threat to ALL HUMANS.
Please:
- inform yourself.
- Avoid social contacts WHENEVER and WHEREEVER you can.
- WASH YOUR HANDS. (check WHO how to do that right!)
- Stay at HOME.

[jachin99]

Good info jim!!

[Mike Foran]

Thank you for posting this Jim. Being proactive isn’t in many people’s DNA. My wife for example, whom myself and my daughter have had to heavily pressure to convince her she shouldn’t be traveling into work every day. It’s helpful to see real facts backing up the fears. Hopefully, in a year we will be listening to people, who are still alive, complaining about how everyone totally overacted because it turned out to be not as bad as predicted. Just like the “over reaction” to Y2K.

[fitbrit]

This is nasty, serious stuff for many older people, and some of all ages.

Kids and people under 30 can carry the virus with little to no symptoms.
The virus is viable on various surfaces for many days.
The incubation time between infection and symptoms can be as long as 14 days.

Altogether that is a recipe for disaster unless everyone is willing to act in a way that they believe others will perceive as over-reaction.

[fitbrit]

For the first time in the history of this forum, an anti-virus will be the SOLUTION.

[MagerClab]

For the first time in the history of this forum, an anti-virus will be the SOLUTION.

GOOD insider joke. Made me laugh, thank you 

[Inquisition]

The curious thing here in germany is, i never would have believed that the first item run out in shops will be toilet paper.     Nudels, rice, vacumated or freezed eat, yes, but no, it was and already is toilet paper.  I cant understand this.

Yesterday i get informed that our local big shops for consumer electronics all have no freezers to sell yet. the people also buy freezers like crazy.


Now i know why, they freez the toilet paper lol

[Inquisition]

Now a little serious,  it will became a very big crisis with covid and i think we all will became many changes this year and maybe next year again till they can control covid and developed medics.

We will lose much of our freedom for weeks or months.  But it will be done and the biggest luck is that the death rate isnt high as cov-sars or more worst cov-mers (30%)

[JimH]

An article in the Lancet today showed that the mortality rate is likely closer to 15% if you correct for the day on which you were infected. This is nasty, serious stuff for many older people, and some of all ages.

I've seen an 8% mortality rate for people over 70 who are infected, and 14% for people over 80.

[dtc]

I'd be careful with the mortality rate data.  It is pretty certainly higher than the rate for the flu, but the exact value is hard to know.   The 3.5% number was an early number and more recent ones were are often in the 1% to 2% range. But the real value is not really known.  Testing, especially in the US, is just getting started and there is little data on the number of asymptomatic patients.  Until there is more data, it will be hard to pin down the real rate. But, there is no doubt, that the potential  is for COVID-19 to be much worse that the flu, with the further worry that none of the current anti-viral medications seems to have much effect.


By the way, hand washing with soap, even anti-bacterial soap, does not kill the virus. The idea is to general lots of suds, which helps lift the virus off your skin so that you can wash it away with water. Drying with a disposable towel is the best. The hot air driers found in many restrooms are to be avoided, since they disperse any viruses into the air rather than removing them.  Even after washing, using a hand sanitizer is recommended, if you have any. An alcohol based sanitizer should have  60% or more alcohol. Rubbing alcohol is typically 70%.
60% ethanol is 120 proof, so if you want to use vodka or gin, the standard ones are not potent enough.  150 proof rum should work.  Bleach can also be used, but requires long contact (like 10 minutes) so it is much better for cleaning hard surfaces than hands.


Seems like a good time to curate you media collection and listen to music.  I have set up my outdoor TV to display what is playing so I can see it from the pool.  If I have to be at home, I might as well enjoy it.

[Inquisition]

the mortality rate over the hole people isnt high, this says of course nothing about how it looks like on different groups for them.

young people can be close zero but olds high.

[fitbrit]

A closer look at the mortality rate.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

[dtc]

A closer look at the mortality rate.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

The article points out the problem of not having data for people who show no or mild symptoms.  Those people are not identified as having the virus and that increases the calculated mortality rate.  The last sentence says their results relate to symptomatic patients only.  We are just too early into this to have a good handle on numbers like this.

[Inquisition]

final results comes when this crisis is over.

everything before is speculation.  China has 0.3%, here in germany we have at the moment 0,002%, italy is close to 9%

[millst]

By the way, hand washing with soap, even anti-bacterial soap, does not kill the virus.

Soap destroys the lipid membrane of the virus:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/health/soap-coronavirus-handwashing-germs.html

[EnglishTiger]

MS now have an "interactive covid-19 map" that shows the # of cases etc. - https://www.bing.com/covid

[JimH]

MS now have an "interactive covid-19 map" that shows the # of cases etc. - https://www.bing.com/covid

That shows 7000 deaths from 180,000 cases.  It's about a 3.8% mortality rate.

[fitbrit]

That shows 7000 deaths from 180,000 cases.  It's about a 3.8% mortality rate.

Some of those 180,000 haven't died yet. In any case, the rate is bad, the virus is bad. We need to avoid getting it and spreading it. And failing that, we need to slow its spread as much as possible. Good luck everyone. Stay safe.

[F Ribeiro]

Italy: 2 158 /  27 980 = 7,71% (if my calculator is not wrong)

See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw&feature=youtu.be

Here, in Portugal, we reached an agreement with Spain and we will close the borders as of 12:00 PM.
Several other countries have already done so.
Those who didn't, will do it soon.
We have not lived in a situation like this since the second world war.
In some European countries, we have a curfew (you have to stay home by government law).

Believe me that what we are experiencing is definitely NOT a flu.

[justsomeguy]

You need to look deeper into what those numbers actually are. Those number of infected cases are from only the very small percentage of people that have been tested in the US and those tested are primarily already symptomatic or have been known to have been in contact with some known to already be infected. As they have said themselves most people will get it and get over it without even knowing they had it. So it is must be pretty much certain the number of people that have been infected have been many times what they are reporting which means the mortality rate is many times lower than what they are telling you.

Yes the virus is real, no it isn't as bad as it's being made out to be. The mortality rate might be on par with the normal flu and may likely be even less. So far this flu season from Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020 according to the CDC numbers up to around 30,000 in just the US have died of the flu already. In the 2017-2018 season 80,000 died of the flu in just the US. This is being exploited for sure. The fallout from the economic impact on peoples lives because of this irrational panic will likely cause more harm to people in the long run. The economic divide between the ultra rich and the working class that most people complain about is just going to get wider because of our reactions to this. But like has been said before "Never let a good crisis go to waste"

Anyone with cold or flu like symptoms should always limit their exposure to others and especially those with weak immune systems or older people. It's just common sense.

[dtc]

Yes the virus is real, no it isn't as bad as it's being made out to be. The mortality rate might be on par with the normal flu and may likely be even less.

That is pure speculation and is not in line with what most of the experts are saying.

[Hendrik]

Some of those 180,000 haven't died yet. In any case, the rate is bad, the virus is bad.

And many with very mild symptoms might not have been diagnosed at all and will just pass by the statistics.

Italy's statistics are pretty bad right now because they are so overloaded that they don't care to test people with mild symptoms anymore (which could just be a cold), instead they are caring for the bad cases and even testing people that died before they could be tested/treated - which is why their mortality rate goes through the roof. The testing is heavily biased.

[dtc]

Soap destroys the lipid membrane of the virus:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/health/soap-coronavirus-handwashing-germs.html

The initial reports on the virus had a different structure that what is currently being reported. The initial structure was not attacked by soap, whereas the one currently being discussed are apparently  attacked by soap.  Most viruses are not killed damaged by soap, whereas some animal based ones are.

The physical removal is an added bonus.

[BigSpider]

You cannot kill a virus as it is not alive, but you can affect its ability to invade its target cells. Soap used correctly can affect the surface layers of the virus hindering its abilty to penetrate the target cells. Once a virus like this is introduced into a community it will spread and have it's affects upon the population and hopefully that population will gradually build up a resistance to it, but don't expect it to disappear because of washing hands. I doubt that it is the end of the world but it might cause some mighty disruption to an over- populated planet.

[BigSpider]

I will go on listening to my music on JRiver MC and enjoy playing with my grandchildren - life goes on, but it will terminate for the individual at some point. The question is, did you enjoy it?

[wer]

People should not confuse these reported mortality rates for the truth; in reality mortality rates are much lower, although the true numbers are unknown.

As has been pointed out, published mortality rates are based on documented cases of infection.  But that drastically under-counts infections.

The majority of people infected with this virus either experience no significant symptoms, or experience symptoms consistent with a mild cold or flu, and then get better.  These cases go unreported. 

Genetic analysis of the virus samples taken in Washington state revealed that the virus was spreading there for weeks before any documented infections arose or deaths occurred. This was possible because those people did not die.  Either no symptoms, or the sniffles, and it passed.  It hit a nursing home full of contained, vulnerable people, and then suddenly there was a death toll and realization.

This can be a serious illness if it becomes acute and does lung damage.  You don't want to get it. 

But neither is it apocalyptic.  People are overreacting, as though it were an existential threat to humanity and everyone they know.  Talking about it everywhere can cause more people to panic.  This panic has economic ramifications that will prove to be more destructive than the virus.

The flu epidemic of 1918, unchecked by the benefits of modern medicine, killed between 50-80 million people.  Civilization did not collapse, economies continued apace and long term damage to markets was insignificant.

People need to keep their heads.

[BigSpider]

Like I said, enjoy life while you have it, just be aware that the main results of a pandemic are caused by the human component (must have toilet rolls!) not the virus itself. 1918 saw some major changes in the world order.

[wer]

1918 saw some major changes in the world order.

Yeah, well there was a small war going on at the time that might have had something to do with that.

[BigSpider]

Quite a big war actually, but take 18 million from a very basic society and you get problems. Take more from complex society and who knows what happens? I just enjoy playing with the grandkids even if they might end me and MC makes it all very pleasant and enjoyable. JimH should know better than putting up a thread like this one!!!!

[JimH]

Yeah, well there was a small war going on at the time that might have had something to do with that.

Don't mention the war.

[BigSpider]

Ja wohl mein host.Vat war? What has a RNA virus got to do with MC?

[justsomeguy]

That is pure speculation and is not in line with what most of the experts are saying.

Obviously I personally can't prove that but it is very obvious just from their own words that the numbers they are presenting are intentionally manipulated to make it seem worse than it is. We can't really believe that the only people that have been infected are the ones they are reporting. That defies all basic logic and facts that they themselves have said about how this virus works. The only logical conclusion is these experts are lying and misleading the public by deliberately leaving out a crucial part of the equation to the mortality rate.

[Inquisition]

i agree.  theres a huge dark figure.

if the numbers the experts named would be all infected then how can the virus rise and rise up? all infected are in quarantine.   

the uprising of the numbers came from those infected people unknown and not listed yet, some don't go to doctor and others don't show sings and so didn't recognize that they have it.

and this number is much higher than the known cases.

[AndyU]

This is the scientific paper in which various  intervention options are modelled, and which is being used by the UK and US governments to decide policy. tl;dr the outlook is grim, it will be around a long time and affect a lot of people. The doubling rate of the virus is approximately 5 days, this is substantiated by the Italian and other data. Most people on here should know how powers of two stack up.  The mortality is highly skewed to old people with pre-existing pathologies. In Italy nursing staff have been disproportionately infected. The UKs Chief Scientific Officer has just said that keeping deaths under 20,000 (compared to the flus 8000) would be seen as a good outcome. The UK reasonable worst case outcome was 250,000. There is no imaginable way anyone is overreacting.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[dtc]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Very informative. Thanks.

[JimH]

AndyU,
Thanks very much for posting the link.  It's a dense paper, difficult to read, but incredibly important. 

Here's a sample of what the paper contains:

"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US."

[EnglishTiger]

The one thing we all have to remember, and take into consideration, is that nobody knows enough about Covid-19 to be able to predict either The Survival Rate or The Mortality Rate with any Certainty. Because the real experts are still learning about the Virus and the ways it spreads they are still unable to  work out why the infection rate and rate of spread is  varying not only by country but also by regions/areas within countries. Unfortunately, just as with Flu, we may never know how many people have been infected or The True Mortality Rate.

Yes there is a lot of bad/misleading information out there, but that is not restricted to Covid-19, some of it is down to the various "Media Channels/Outlets" who, as they always have done and probably always will, take a specific stance/view on a subject and recruit/use "Self Proclaimed Experts" who are willing to support that stance/view.

P.S. Don't forget that one of "King Donald's" first utterances about Covid-19 was to declare it "A Hoax"

Incidentally did anybody else notice that at the start of  Monday's press briefing King Donald praised the media for "practising social distancing" yet everyone behind him were that close to each other that partial contact was occurring; the same happened on Tuesday.

[Moe]

I found this pretty interesting https://efhiii.github.io/COVID-19/COVID-19.mp4

The last few seconds is scary, and that's where we are now.

[JimH]

This graph shows how quickly the virus spreads.  It charts number of cases (beginning when there are 100) vs. days.

Once it reached 100, in most countries, it reached a week later and 10,000 a week after that.  The curves would be much steeper if the y-axis wasn't logarithmic. 

It suggests that many countries will have 10 times the number of cases two weeks from now.

[JimH]

CDC:  38% of U.S. hospitalizations are under age 55.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/19/younger-adults-are-large-percentage-coronavirus-hospitalizations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/

[EnglishTiger]

Jimh - I'm not sure what source you obtained the - "It suggests that many countries will have 10 times the number of cases two weeks from now." statement on because unfortunately it looks like the primary source of information for that graph, The WHO, are way behind the curve when it comes to providing "Up To The Minute Data/Numbers".

To give you some idea as to how bad and misleading information can lead to the vast majority of people, and the media, into making totally wrong assumptions, the graph you displayed in your posting appears to show a slow down in the "rate of spread" in the US but as of 7:52 am GMT WHO  was showing that the USA had 7087 Reported Cases; Bing were reporting that the USA had 14363 cases and John Hoskins(CSSE) were reporting that the USA had 14520 cases. I know for certain that the WHO map/data is at least 24 hours behind the curve because it states the map/data was updated at 00:00 CET on the 19th of March whilst Bing was reporting that the Number of Confirmed Cases in the USA had exceeded the Number of Confirmed Cases in France around 11:00 pm GMT on the 18th. Anybody/everybody comparing data from the WHO and either Bing or John Hoskins, and who did not notice that the WHO map/data was out of date, could easily be mislead into believing that the Number of Confirmed Cases in the USA had "Doubled in less than 48 hours".

WHO Covid-19 Map/Numbers - https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
Bing Covid-19 Map/Numbers - https://www.bing.com/covid
John Hopkins(CSSE) Covid-19 Map/Numbers https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Inquisition]

So we here in Germany Bavaria get the lockdown this night for next two weeks

[F Ribeiro]

Lock down here in Portugal too