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OT: first time I've wanted to be an American...
DarkPenguin:
--- Quote from: hit_ny on August 30, 2008, 11:08:46 am ---That's the promise but has any president to date been able to change the system ?
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Andrew Jackson?
glynor:
--- Quote from: hit_ny on August 29, 2008, 04:59:15 pm ---And that's not who she is for, her job is to get the ones that think McCain is too soft, those same ones, who last time around made a decisive difference.
A round about way of doing things if you will but what to do, the man is just not strong enough in some areas ;D
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I'm intentionally staying out of this one in general. :-X
However, I do feel I should address this one point, because the talking bobbleheads on TV aren't really addressing it at all (of course, it is in their best interest to keep the story alive and keep the election "close"). Palin was absolutely picked to try to appeal to the so-called "disaffected" Clinton supporters. The pick certainly did have the dual-purpose of solidifying the conservative base as well, but that could have been achieved in many other ways that wouldn't have gutted the long-running experience talking point (and, sorry, being close to Siberia doesn't count for foreign policy experience any more than having Mt. McKinley qualifies as Space Exploration experience). It is blatantly transparent... McCain wanted Lieberman. The base threatened to revolt, so he couldn't have him. He hates Romney, so he wouldn't pick him. After Thursday, he needed to make a big gesture, which Pawlenty certainly wouldn't do, so he reacted. Could have been worse, really.
The obvious, and necessary, point was to try to attract disaffected Democrats and Independent women (big I). The reason is blatantly simple. Party affiliation numbers are not the same as they were for the past 4 presidential election cycles (and more, really), so comparing to what "worked last time" isn't relevant. The country has swung fairly hard to the left. Despite small (but significant) gains in August, Republican affiliation is WAY down and Dem and Independent affiliation is way up (Dems have a 5.7% advantage right now, not counting Dem leaning Independents). As we stand right now... McCain HAS TO solidify his base, AND steal a significant proportion of the Independent/Democratic vote, or he loses. If Obama simply solidifies his base and coasts to a stalemate with Independents, he wins. Period. (That simplifies things somewhat because it ignores the state-by-state math, but that situation only makes things worse for McCain.)
So, you're right. McCain has fires on two fronts, his base still isn't really solid (Paul's separate rally doesn't look good, but the real problem is all those people still voting for Huckabee in the primaries after he had already quit and McCain had already won). He has to keep all those evangelicals with the same high turnout numbers Bush inspired in 2004, and then also manage to steal at least 6% of the current Dem/Ind voters. Palin was clearly aimed at these two dual (and somewhat opposing) goals.
It could work. I'm with Jim though. In the end, it probably won't. It is nearly impossible to run against the popularity figures the current administration has now in the best of times, and we are really far from the best of times. And then, to top it all off, you have to run against Obama. I don't think anyone really, truly relishes the idea of running against that man right now, despite what the talking points say.
glynor:
--- Quote from: hit_ny on August 30, 2008, 11:08:46 am ---That's the promise but has any president to date been able to change the system ?
--- End quote ---
I think it could certainly be argued that FDR, Nixon, and that Reagan did, among others. They may not have always changed it in the ways that they planned, but changed it they did.
Matt:
--- Quote from: JimH on August 29, 2008, 08:57:10 am ---I believe that the world will learn this November that the people of the United States do not support the policies or the conduct of the current administration.
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Except for 2004, when we did support them.
hit_ny:
--- Quote from: glynor on September 03, 2008, 07:37:39 pm ---I'm intentionally staying out of this one in general. :-X
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Why ??
You might be preaching to the choir :P
--- Quote from: glynor on September 03, 2008, 07:37:39 pm ---Palin was absolutely picked to try to appeal to the so-called "disaffected" Clinton supporters.
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Not sure that makes sense, cause i would have thought that was McCain's job. Why else would Kerry even have thought of him as a potential running mate last time around.
OTOH if what you say is true then the game is up, time to make make way for the mighty Obamacles.
--- Quote from: glynor on September 03, 2008, 07:37:39 pm ---The pick certainly did have the dual-purpose of solidifying the conservative base as well, but that could have been achieved in many other ways that wouldn't have gutted the long-running experience talking point (and, sorry, being close to Siberia doesn't count for foreign policy experience any more than having Mt. McKinley qualifies as Space Exploration experience).
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How much foreign policy experience did Bush require ?
I get the impression the only ppl that care are those that can't vote, ie the foreigners.
...you could counter thats exactly the problem currently :)
i thought i had an opinion about this but decided to let history be the judge. Stratgeically it cost less now than later, but whether it was worth it is too early to say.
The one trump card McCain has here is that he actively supported the surge last year, that Bush subsequently approved despite lots of opposition at the time. That surge is responsible for the improvement in Iraq today compared to before.
--- Quote from: glynor on September 03, 2008, 07:37:39 pm ---It could work. I'm with Jim though. In the end, it probably won't. It is nearly impossible to run against the popularity figures the current administration has now in the best of times, and we are really far from the best of times. And then, to top it all off, you have to run against Obama. I don't think anyone really, truly relishes the idea of running against that man right now, despite what the talking points say.
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Is the split in the Republican camp more than in the other ?
McCain never did like Bush, so he has to distance himself & at the same time retain his supporters.
Quite awkward, what is the message here, vote for us to have the same or ??
Is that possible ?
That's why i think Palin's choice is more to stem any mutiny, plug the leaks than appeal to Hillary's supporters. Still waiting to see how they can measure if it worked.
Will the debate change anything ?
not to the core supporters but to independents it might. My gut feeling is Obama will come out looking better in the debate but let's see.
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