I think that there will be a splintering of media consumption in the future. In fact it's already started. I'll give my industry predictions below, followed by what each of these might mean for MC. This was written over many hours with interruptions in the double digits - a screaming kid that needed to be fed and put to bed, and a demanding wife who deserved pampering after covering (for Reuters) the first day of the trial of Canada's most horrific murder case in decades. Sorry for the rambling, disjointed blob of words that I am about to spew out:
Streaming Vs Physical MediaThere will be low bitrate, but hi-res, video streaming that will grow in popularity. e.g. Netflix 4K. As the current under 40s get older, there will be more and more cord-cutting going on. On the other hand there will always be people who want to watch video with the highest fidelity possible, and they will buy physical media if they have to.
Audio in VideoWith new audio standards like ATMOS and Auro making their way into the home the enthusiasts will try to keep up with these. However, most people might be happy just streaming stereo Neflix through a soundbar under their 50" 4K TV.
Screen size/resolutionFront projection systems in the 100" or smaller ranges may dwindle as larger screen TVs become more affordable, even among enthusiasts. Large screen home theatres will move to bright laser/LED illumination for the front projectors. When they become affordable though, 80" to 100" TVs will gain ground in homes that can get those sets into the theatre rooms. In 10 years, we may have floor-based ultra short throw projection systems like those shown by LG(?) and Vizio(?), or maybe it was Sony/Sharp(?) in the current sub 70" price range.
3D3D is something I am a fan of. I have seen one 3D movie in a cinema. The quality of 3D in my home, with a ~$2000 projector just blew away the cinema experience. With a large screen, 3D and tactile transducers and 11.1 DTS-Neo:X, my home theatre offers me the most immersive viewing experience I've ever had. People like me, with all this gear, are in the minority Movies are continuing to be made in 3D, even if 4K is the big trend being pushed to us instead of a vast array of 3D TV sets. I think the manufacturers are waiting to see which glasses-free 3D TV format wins out, and my guess is that it will be StreamTV's Ultra-D technology. Ultra-D will come out with products within the next six months (I hope), and these are supposed to be not much more than the cost of similarly sized mid-budget 4K panels. That technology might cement 3D's foothold in home video watching. They supposedly have a deal with Sky broadcasting in the UK, who have adopted it as their future 3D broadcast technology. To appreciate 3D at its best currently you really need:
1) A bright image
2) A full resolution image
3) Glasses
4) Content that improves the viewing experience in 3D
5) IMHO, a LARGE image
I think only 2011 and newer front projection systems, or 65"+ active 3D TVs can achieve all of these at a reasonable price.
The HTPC and JRiverMedia consumptiona) In 5 years, streaming will have gained much ground and live 'broadcast' TV might have dwindled accordingly. I'm not sure what the demand for PVR functions will be like in 5 years, but they surely must be significantly less in 10 years. In 5 years, 4K BluRays will be the gold physical media standard. The players may be bundled with TVs. I can only imagine they'll really only take off, relatively speaking, if the discs are bundled with standard 1080p BluRay versions. DRM won't go away, and neither will Slysoft, so there will still be people with ripped discs on massive media servers. These guys and disc purchasers/renters should still have MC as their default media software. However, I don't think this market will gain ground because of the Netflix phenomenon; the only reason one would store video on a home server, as opposed to affordably streaming it from a cloud service, is if the viewer is concerned about video quality. It appears from anecdotal accounts that audio/video quality is secondary to young people, with ease of accessibility being prime. I hope that MC is able to evolve so that the quality crowd can watch their videos as easily as the YouTube generation.
If MC can become a "hypervisor" that can integrate video locally and from streaming services, it would be a winner. I like imugli's idea of the icons on the thumbnails to denote the source.
Audio in Videob) The HTPC enthusiasts will want to see new audio formats cracked so that they can be decoded on the PC, freeing them from the constant AV Receiver upgrade cycle. However, there's always a lag between a new format being released, and decoders for them debuting. That's the period when being able to bitstream the codec is essential. Once the 3D formats come out and establish themselves, what's left other than the capacity to add more physical channels (Dolby ATMOS-SPHERE?), or increased processing power to deal with even more metadata on top of the TrueHD track? Perhaps JRiver would blow everything away with their own take on 3D object-oriented audio with JRSS 3.0?
screen size and resolutionWell, it seems 4K is here to stay. It's easy to predict faster, more capable iGPUs and video cards with associated drivers to handle this all in MC. HDMI 2.0 video cards are already coming out. H265 decoding will be the norm, and I expect Hendrik to keep up with all of this easily. Not because it's easy per se, but because of the confidence in him that I have.
I should also lump in increased "colour space" video standards here, which would also be in the realm of needing new hardware and drivers to exploit fully.
3DI would dearly love to see MC support 3D, if possible. That means MVC decoding and rendering, and also an OSD/Subtitles that appear in a usable way when the 3D content is either side-by-side or over/under (both formats that MC can currently play very well, because it's the display device that converts them to frame-packed format on the fly.)
The good thing(?) about UltraD is that the TVs will come with an integrated mini-computer to generate the images from 2D or reading current 3D information and converting it to Ultra-D. That means that MC may not need to handle 3D decoding and rendering itself, but rather be able to send the data in a form that the Ultra-D TV can understand. For front projectors, though, full support of the current formats would be required, and there seems to be a gap in the market there now.